The importance of severity of illness adjustment in predicting adverse outcomes in the Medicare population.

Abstract:

:The importance of using risk-adjusted mortality rates to measure quality of care is well-established. However, mortality rates may be an insensitive measure of quality for surgical patients since death is a relatively rare outcome. This study used Medicare files to identify, through chart abstraction, clinical postoperative complications of four surgical procedures (n = 8126) that could serve as measures of quality. Disease-specific severity of illness models using a moderate number of clinical variables and admission MedisGroups score models computed from approximately 250 clinical variables were compared in predicting postoperative adverse events. Initial differences between the two models disappeared upon cross-validation. Validated R-squareds and C statistics from models using half the data were generally positive, suggesting that these models had real, although modest, predictive power. We have shown that severity of illness on admission plays a role in predicting adverse events of surgery. Risk-adjusted outcomes may potentially be useful in screening for quality shortfalls.

journal_name

J Clin Epidemiol

authors

Rosen AK,Ash AS,McNiff KJ,Moskowitz MA

doi

10.1016/0895-4356(94)00165-m

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1995-05-01 00:00:00

pages

631-43

issue

5

eissn

0895-4356

issn

1878-5921

pii

0895-4356(94)00165-M

journal_volume

48

pub_type

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