Abstract：
:Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.
journal_name
Ann N Y Acad Scijournal_title
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciencesauthors
McMahon SM,Dietze MC,Hersh MH,Moran EV,Clark JSdoi
10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04495.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-04-01 00:00:00pages
221-36eissn
0077-8923issn
1749-6632pii
NYAS04495journal_volume
1162pub_type
杂志文章,评审abstract：:The present study was designed to immunochemically identify a coronin-like protein in Babesia bovis, B. bigemina, B. divergens, and B. canis. A 2-kbp cDNA insert of B. bovis carried by plasmid BvN9 was sequenced by the dideoxichain-termination method on both strands. The cDNA insert contained a 1719-bp long open readi...
journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章
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abstract：:From the time Dan was 12 years old to the present, he always was the explorer of life. He was very fortunate in having an opportunity to see how life exists in several human societies around the world. His many professional foreign travels are presented. Dan went to a 1959 meeting in Argentina, to England in 1963, and...
journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 传,历史文章,杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1749-6632.2000.tb06207.x
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abstract：:Rats inoculated once with nicotinic acetylcholine receptor and adjuvants had two episodes of weakness, the first being acute and transient, starting on day 8, and remitting in a few days, the second, chronic, progressive, and appearing after day 20. In the acute phase, the compound action potential and twitch evoked ...
journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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doi：10.1111/j.1749-6632.1976.tb47694.x
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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abstract：:Soluble decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), a member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, has recently been reported to increase osteoclast (OC) differentiation. Its impact on the skeleton was reinforced by a study on DcR3 transgenic mice showing a decreased bone mass through the elevation of OC number, providing s...
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 杂志文章
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abstract：:Classic studies of the cerebellum before the middle of the twentieth century established the structural entity of the cerebellum and characterized its function as enabling animals and humans to carry out smooth and accurate movements, even at a high speed and without visual feedback. In the 1960s, neuronal circuit str...
journal_title：Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type： 历史文章,杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1749-6632.2002.tb07574.x
更新日期：2002-12-01 00:00:00
