Abstract：
:Mathematical models have been used to simulate HIV transmission and to study the use of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. Often a single intervention outcome over 10 years has been used to evaluate the effectiveness of PrEP interventions. However, different metrics express a wide variation over time and often disagree in their forecast on the success of the intervention. We develop a deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission and use it to evaluate the public-health impact of oral PrEP interventions. We study PrEP effectiveness with respect to different evaluation methods and analyze its dynamics over time. We compare four traditional indicators, based on cumulative number or fractions of infections prevented, on reduction in HIV prevalence or incidence and propose two additional methods, which estimate the burden of the epidemic to the public-health system. We investigate the short and long term behavior of these indicators and the effects of key parameters on the expected benefits from PrEP use. Our findings suggest that public-health officials considering adopting PrEP in HIV prevention programs can make better informed decisions by employing a set of complementing quantitative metrics.
journal_name
Bull Math Bioljournal_title
Bulletin of mathematical biologyauthors
Zhao Y,Dimitrov DT,Liu H,Kuang Ydoi
10.1007/s11538-013-9824-7subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-04-01 00:00:00pages
649-75issue
4eissn
0092-8240issn
1522-9602journal_volume
75pub_type
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