Fetal overgrowth in pregnancies complicated by diabetes: development of a clinical prediction index.

Abstract:

PURPOSE:To develop an index to predict fetal overgrowth in pregnancies complicated by diabetes. METHODS:Data were derived from a cohort of 275 women with singleton gestations in a collaborative diabetes in pregnancy program. Regression analysis incorporated clinical factors available in the first 20-30 weeks of pregnancy that were assigned beta-coefficient-based weights, the sum of which yielded a fetal overgrowth index (composite score). RESULTS:Fifty-one (18.5%) pregnancies were complicated by fetal overgrowth. The derived index included five clinical factors: age ≤ 30, history of macrosomia, excessive gestational weight gain, enlarged fetal abdominal circumference, and fasting hyperglycemia. Area under the curve (AUC) for the index is 0.88 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.92]. Cut-points were selected to identify "high-risk" and "low-risk" ranges (≥ 8 and ≤ 3) that have positive and negative predictive values of 84% (95% CI 70-98%) and 95% (95% CI 92-98%), respectively. The majority of women in our cohort (n = 182, 66%) had a "low-risk" index while 9% (n = 25) had a "high-risk" index. Sub-analyses of nulliparous women and women with gestational and pre-gestational diabetes revealed that the overgrowth index was equally or more predictive when applied separately to each of these groups. CONCLUSION:This fetal overgrowth index that incorporates five clinical factors provides a means of predicting fetal overgrowth and thereby serves as a tool for targeting the allocation of healthcare resources and treatment individualization.

journal_name

Arch Gynecol Obstet

authors

Tomlinson TM,Mostello DJ,Lim KH,Pritchard JS,Gross G

doi

10.1007/s00404-018-4758-9

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-07-01 00:00:00

pages

67-74

issue

1

eissn

0932-0067

issn

1432-0711

pii

10.1007/s00404-018-4758-9

journal_volume

298

pub_type

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