Abstract:
:Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to predict the risk of having an event by a prespecified future time t0 . Accuracy measures such as positive predictive values have been recommended for evaluating the predictive performance. However, for commonly used continuous or ordinal risk score systems, these measures require a subjective cutoff threshold value that dichotomizes the risk scores. The need for a cutoff value created barriers for practitioners and researchers. In this paper, we propose a threshold-free summary index of positive predictive values that accommodates time-dependent event status and competing risks. We develop a nonparametric estimator and provide an inference procedure for comparing this summary measure between 2 risk scores for censored time to event data. We conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. Lastly, we illustrate the use of this measure on a real data example, comparing 2 risk score systems for predicting heart failure in childhood cancer survivors.
journal_name
Stat Medjournal_title
Statistics in medicineauthors
Yuan Y,Zhou QM,Li B,Cai H,Chow EJ,Armstrong GTdoi
10.1002/sim.7606subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-05-10 00:00:00pages
1671-1681issue
10eissn
0277-6715issn
1097-0258journal_volume
37pub_type
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