Dynamic thresholds and a summary ROC curve: Assessing prognostic accuracy of longitudinal markers.

Abstract:

:Cancer patients, chronic kidney disease patients, and subjects infected with HIV are routinely monitored over time using biomarkers that represent key health status indicators. Furthermore, biomarkers are frequently used to guide initiation of new treatments or to inform changes in intervention strategies. Since key medical decisions can be made on the basis of a longitudinal biomarker, it is important to evaluate the potential accuracy associated with longitudinal monitoring. To characterize the overall accuracy of a time-dependent marker, we introduce a summary ROC curve that displays the overall sensitivity associated with a time-dependent threshold that controls time-varying specificity. The proposed statistical methods are similar to concepts considered in disease screening, yet our methods are novel in choosing a potentially time-dependent threshold to define a positive test, and our methods allow time-specific control of the false-positive rate. The proposed summary ROC curve is a natural averaging of time-dependent incident/dynamic ROC curves and therefore provides a single summary of net error rates that can be achieved in the longitudinal setting.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Saha-Chaudhuri P,Heagerty PJ

doi

10.1002/sim.7675

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-08-15 00:00:00

pages

2700-2714

issue

18

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

37

pub_type

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