Abstract:
:Disease incidence predictions are useful for a number of administrative and scientific purposes. The simplest ones are made using trend extrapolation, on either an arithmetic or a logarithmic scale. This paper shows how approximate confidence prediction intervals can be calculated for such predictions, both for the total number of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates, by assuming Poisson distribution of the age and period specific numbers of incident cases. Generalizations for prediction models, for example, using power families and extra-Poisson variation, are also presented. Cancer incidence predictions for the Stockholm-Gotland Oncological Region in Sweden are used as an example.
journal_name
Stat Medjournal_title
Statistics in medicineauthors
Hakulinen T,Dyba Tdoi
10.1002/sim.4780131503subject
Has Abstractpub_date
1994-08-15 00:00:00pages
1513-23issue
15eissn
0277-6715issn
1097-0258journal_volume
13pub_type
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