Abstract：
BACKGROUND:With the large amounts of data on patient, tumor, and treatment factors available to clinicians, it has become critically important to harness this information to guide clinicians in discussing a patient's prognosis. However, no widely accepted survival calculator is available that uses national data and includes multiple prognostic factors. Our objective was to develop a model for predicting survival among patients diagnosed with breast cancer using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to serve as a prototype for the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator." PATIENTS AND METHODS:A retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with breast cancer (2003-2006) in the NCDB was included. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict overall survival was developed. Model discrimination by 10-fold internal cross-validation and calibration was assessed. RESULTS:There were 296,284 patients for model development and internal validation. The c-index for the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.779 to 0.788 after inclusion of all available pertinent prognostic factors. A plot of the observed versus predicted 5 year overall survival showed minimal deviation from the reference line. CONCLUSION:This breast cancer survival prognostic model to be used as a prototype for building the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator" will offer patients and clinicians an objective opportunity to estimate personalized long-term survival based on patient demographic characteristics, tumor factors, and treatment delivered.
journal_name
Surgeryjournal_title
Surgeryauthors
Asare EA,Liu L,Hess KR,Gordon EJ,Paruch JL,Palis B,Dahlke AR,McCabe R,Cohen ME,Winchester DP,Bilimoria KYdoi
10.1016/j.surg.2015.08.006subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2016-02-01 00:00:00pages
495-502issue
2eissn
0039-6060issn
1532-7361pii
S0039-6060(15)00623-6journal_volume
159pub_type
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