Abstract:
:Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Boit A,Sakschewski B,Boysen L,Cano-Crespo A,Clement J,Garcia-Alaniz N,Kok K,Kolb M,Langerwisch F,Rammig A,Sachse R,van Eupen M,von Bloh W,Clara Zemp D,Thonicke Kdoi
10.1111/gcb.13355subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2016-11-01 00:00:00pages
3689-3701issue
11eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
22pub_type
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