Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

Abstract:

:Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Boit A,Sakschewski B,Boysen L,Cano-Crespo A,Clement J,Garcia-Alaniz N,Kok K,Kolb M,Langerwisch F,Rammig A,Sachse R,van Eupen M,von Bloh W,Clara Zemp D,Thonicke K

doi

10.1111/gcb.13355

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-11-01 00:00:00

pages

3689-3701

issue

11

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

22

pub_type

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