Causality from long-lived radiative forcings to the climate trend.

Abstract:

:In our study, we present a purely statistical observations-based model-free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long-lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible.

journal_name

Ann N Y Acad Sci

authors

Estrada F,Perron P

doi

10.1111/nyas.13923

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-01-01 00:00:00

pages

195-205

issue

1

eissn

0077-8923

issn

1749-6632

journal_volume

1436

pub_type

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