Abstract:
:In our study, we present a purely statistical observations-based model-free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long-lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible.
journal_name
Ann N Y Acad Scijournal_title
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciencesauthors
Estrada F,Perron Pdoi
10.1111/nyas.13923subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-01-01 00:00:00pages
195-205issue
1eissn
0077-8923issn
1749-6632journal_volume
1436pub_type
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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journal_title:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
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