The impact of anthropogenic and environmental factors on human rabies cases in China.

Abstract:

:Human rabies is a public health problem in Asia, especially in less-developed regions where the disease is under-reported because of a lack of epidemiological surveillance. To address this gap, we collected data on human rabies in Yunnan Province, China, between 2005 and 2016. Using statistical mapping techniques, we correlated the occurrence of human rabies to environmental (elevation, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], temperature and distance to the nearest main rivers) and anthropogenic (human and dog population density, distance to the nearest main roads and gross domestic product [GDP]) factors. We used a performance score, the average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.88), to validate our risk model. Using this model, we found that environmental factors were more strongly associated with human rabies occurrence than anthropogenic factors. Areas with elevation below 2000 metres, GDP per capita between $750 and $4500/year and NDVI below 0.07 were associated with greater risk of human rabies. Rabies control in China should specifically target these areas.

journal_name

Transbound Emerg Dis

authors

Yu J,Xiao H,Yang W,Dellicour S,Kraemer MUG,Liu Y,Cai J,Huang ZXY,Zhang Y,Feng Y,Huang W,Zhang H,Gilbert M,Tian H

doi

10.1111/tbed.13600

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-11-01 00:00:00

pages

2544-2553

issue

6

eissn

1865-1674

issn

1865-1682

journal_volume

67

pub_type

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