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Online accesses to medical research articles on publication predicted citations up to 15 years later.

Abstract：

OBJECTIVES:To examine whether the number of early online accesses to medical research articles predicts citations in the scientific literature over time. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Cohort study of research articles published in the BMJ between January and June 1999. The number of online assesses within 1 week of publication was examined in relation to citation counts in 1999-2004, 2004-2009, and 2009-2014. RESULTS:The 148 included articles were accessed on average 691 times up publication, and each was cited on average 33 times in 1999-2004, 32 times in 2004-2009, and 26 times in 2009-2014. The logarithm of accesses predicted the logarithm of citations for all three subsequent periods, but the association weakened over time (correlation with citations in 1999-2004: 0.54, 2004-2009: 0.49, 2009-2014: 0.39; all P < 0.001). In addition to online accesses, the presence of an abstract also predicted more citations for all periods. CONCLUSION:Early interest in a medical research article, reflected by online accesses within a week of publication, predicts citations up to 15 years later. This strengthens the validity of online usage as a measure of the scientific merit of publications.

journal_name

J Clin Epidemiol

journal_title

Journal of clinical epidemiology

authors

Perneger TV

doi

10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.01.024

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-12-01 00:00:00

pages

1440-5

issue

12

eissn

0895-4356

issn

1878-5921

pii

S0895-4356(15)00056-6

journal_volume

68

pub_type

杂志文章

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