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Evolution and prognosis of long intensive care unit stay patients suffering a deterioration: A multicenter study.

Abstract：

PURPOSE:The prognosis of a patient who deteriorates during a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay is difficult to predict. We analyze the prognostic value of the serialized Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and other variables in the early days after a complication and to build a new predictive score. MATERIALS AND METHODS:EPIPUSE (Evolución y pronóstico de los pacientes con ingreso prolongado en UCI que sufren un empeoramiento, Evolution and prognosis of long intensive care unit stay patients suffering a deterioration) study is a prospective, observational study during a 3-month recruitment period in 75 Spanish ICUs. We focused on patients admitted in the ICU for 7 days or more with complications of adverse events that involve organ dysfunction impairment. Demographics, clinical variables, and serialized SOFA after a supervening clinical deterioration were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed, and a predictive model was created with the most discriminating variables. RESULTS:We included 589 patients who experienced 777 cases of severe complication or adverse event. The entire sample was randomly divided into 2 subsamples, one for development purposes (528 cases) and the other for validation (249 cases). The predictive model maximizing specificity is calculated by minimum SOFA + 2 * cardiovascular risk factors + 2 * history of any oncologic disease or immunosuppressive treatment + 3 * dependence for basic activities of daily living. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.82. A 14-point cutoff has a positive predictive value of 100% (92.7%-100%) and negative predictive value of 51% (46.4%-55.5%) for death. CONCLUSIONS:EPIPUSE model can predict mortality with a specificity and positive predictive value of 99% in some groups of patients.

journal_name

J Crit Care

journal_title

Journal of critical care

authors

Hernández-Tejedor A,Cabré-Pericas L,Martín-Delgado MC,Leal-Micharet AM,Algora-Weber A,EPIPUSE study group.

doi

10.1016/j.jcrc.2015.01.011

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-06-01 00:00:00

pages

654.e1-7

issue

3

eissn

0883-9441

issn

1557-8615

pii

S0883-9441(15)00030-1

journal_volume

30

pub_type

杂志文章,多中心研究

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