Abstract:
:Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.
journal_name
J Health Econjournal_title
Journal of health economicsauthors
Abellan-Perpiñan JM,Bleichrodt H,Pinto-Prades JLdoi
10.1016/j.jhealeco.2009.09.002subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-12-01 00:00:00pages
1039-47issue
6eissn
0167-6296issn
1879-1646pii
S0167-6296(09)00094-0journal_volume
28pub_type
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