Abstract:
:The authors modeled the possible consequences for US cataract incidence of increases in ultraviolet B radiation due to ozone depletion. Data on the dose-response relation between ocular exposure to ultraviolet B radiation and cortical cataract were derived from a population-based study (the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Project, Salisbury, Maryland) in which extensive data on cataract and ultraviolet radiation were collected in persons aged 65-84 years. Exposure estimates for the US population were derived using estimated ultraviolet radiation fluxes as a function of wavelength. US Census data were used to obtain the age, ethnicity, and sex distribution of the population. Predicted probabilities of cataract were derived from the age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific ocular ultraviolet exposure data and were modeled under conditions of 5-20% ozone depletion. The analysis indicated that by 2050, the prevalence of cortical cataract will increase above expected levels by 1.3-6.9%. The authors estimate that with 5-20% ozone depletion, there will be 167,000-830,000 additional cases of cortical cataract by 2050. Because of the high prevalence of cataract in older persons, at a 2003 cost of 3,370 dollars per cataract operation, this increase could represent an excess cost of 563 million dollars to 2.8 billion dollars.
journal_name
Am J Epidemioljournal_title
American journal of epidemiologyauthors
West SK,Longstreth JD,Munoz BE,Pitcher HM,Duncan DDdoi
10.1093/aje/kwi329subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2005-12-01 00:00:00pages
1080-8issue
11eissn
0002-9262issn
1476-6256pii
kwi329journal_volume
162pub_type
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