Model of risk of cortical cataract in the US population with exposure to increased ultraviolet radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion.

Abstract:

:The authors modeled the possible consequences for US cataract incidence of increases in ultraviolet B radiation due to ozone depletion. Data on the dose-response relation between ocular exposure to ultraviolet B radiation and cortical cataract were derived from a population-based study (the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Project, Salisbury, Maryland) in which extensive data on cataract and ultraviolet radiation were collected in persons aged 65-84 years. Exposure estimates for the US population were derived using estimated ultraviolet radiation fluxes as a function of wavelength. US Census data were used to obtain the age, ethnicity, and sex distribution of the population. Predicted probabilities of cataract were derived from the age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific ocular ultraviolet exposure data and were modeled under conditions of 5-20% ozone depletion. The analysis indicated that by 2050, the prevalence of cortical cataract will increase above expected levels by 1.3-6.9%. The authors estimate that with 5-20% ozone depletion, there will be 167,000-830,000 additional cases of cortical cataract by 2050. Because of the high prevalence of cataract in older persons, at a 2003 cost of 3,370 dollars per cataract operation, this increase could represent an excess cost of 563 million dollars to 2.8 billion dollars.

journal_name

Am J Epidemiol

authors

West SK,Longstreth JD,Munoz BE,Pitcher HM,Duncan DD

doi

10.1093/aje/kwi329

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2005-12-01 00:00:00

pages

1080-8

issue

11

eissn

0002-9262

issn

1476-6256

pii

kwi329

journal_volume

162

pub_type

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