Abstract:
:Patients at the same stage of chronic disease may have had different rates of disease progression. The authors developed a mathematical modeling approach that allows reconstructing and comparing populations in terms of the disease progression rates of their participants when the disease onset and progression rates are unknown for individual patients. Human immunodeficiency virus 1 infection was used as an example. Both published and hypothetical models were used to describe the human immunodeficiency virus 1 epidemic (epidemic heterogeneity) and incubation and survival functions for different disease stages (individual heterogeneity). Reconstructions of populations with late disease (e.g., acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients) show a marked predominance of rapid progressors, unless the incidence of new infections has been decreasing for a long time. Rapid progressors would also predominate in populations of acute seroconverters, unless diagnosis is based on repeated serologic screening rather than symptoms. Populations of patients who have not progressed beyond an early stage of the disease (e.g., patients with CD4 cell counts > 500/microliter) tend to overrepresent slow progressors, especially if the epidemic has been decreasing for a long time. With this approach, one can assess whether the target population of a clinical trial is comparable with other patient populations at different places and times. Epidemic and individual diversity may even affect trial results if patients with different progression rates experience different benefits from a treatment. By modeling the targeted populations in trials of early versus deferred antiretroviral treatment, the authors observed larger treatment benefits in trials in which rapid progressors probably predominated, compared with trials of slow progressors.
journal_name
Am J Epidemioljournal_title
American journal of epidemiologyauthors
Ioannidis JP,Cappelleri JC,Schmid CH,Lau Jdoi
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008881subject
Has Abstractpub_date
1996-12-01 00:00:00pages
1074-85issue
11eissn
0002-9262issn
1476-6256journal_volume
144pub_type
杂志文章abstract::The authors examined the associations between placental vascular findings and preterm delivery in 1,053 subcohort women (239 preterm, 814 term) from a Michigan pregnancy cohort study (1998-2004). Twenty-nine placental vascular variables from microscopic examinations were grouped into 5 constructs: 3 maternal construct...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwp131
更新日期:2009-07-15 00:00:00
abstract::Current abstainers from alcohol have been identified as an inadequate reference group in epidemiologic studies of the effects of alcohol, because inclusion of former drinkers might lead to overestimation of the protective effects and underestimation of the detrimental effects of drinking alcohol. The authors' objectiv...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1093/aje/kwq364
更新日期:2011-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The personality domains of extraversion and neuroticism are regarded as being stable individual psychological characteristics, yet it remains unclear whether they are associated with chronic disease over an extended period of time. In a randomized controlled trial of smoking cessation nested within the original prospe...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwv454
更新日期:2016-09-15 00:00:00
abstract::The authors examined the association of blood pressure with cognitive function as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in a community-based Swedish cohort of 1,736 people aged 75-101 years. Age, sex, education, antihypertensive medication use, heart disease, and stroke were considered as covariates. Mu...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009073
更新日期:1997-06-15 00:00:00
abstract::During late 1977 and early 1978, 192 cases of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis occurred in a community in central Georgia. In 86 of these cases, the patient had been exposed to a single ophthalmologist's office (physician A) 3-22 days before onset of illness. Patients considered as cases were more likely to have had inva...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113064
更新日期:1981-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::In a 1995-1996 cohort study in the city of Dhaka, Bangladesh, morbidity in 117 hospitalized and 137 acute measles cases compared with age-matched children without measles (unexposed) was determined by weekly interview for 6 months. Compared with unexposed children, there were higher incidences of hospitalization (adju...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010267
更新日期:2000-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::A standardized method for examining hearts and coronary arteries was applied in a study of sudden deaths in 227 autopsies of New Orleans men aged 25-49 years. Of these autopsies, 102 deaths were due to external violence, 125 were from natural causes and 45 occurred suddenly. Of the sudden natural deaths, 14 (31%) were...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113036
更新日期:1980-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::The associations between alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking habits and the risk for colorectal adenomatous polyps according to the detailed clinical information about polyps were assessed in a large colonoscopy-based study. The study enrolled participants who visited the National Cancer Center of the Republic o...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwr098
更新日期:2011-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The epidemiologic approach to causal inference (i.e., Hill's viewpoints) consists of evaluating potential causes from the following 2, noncumulative angles: 1) established results from comparative, observational, or experimental epidemiologic studies; and 2) reviews of nonepidemiologic evidence. It does not involve st...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwt223
更新日期:2013-11-15 00:00:00
abstract::Studies from the United States have shown increasing incidence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) with increasing socioeconomic status (SES), whereas in Scandinavian countries, no such relation was identified. We investigated how ASD risk in offspring varied according to parental SES in Taiwan, where we have universal ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwaa241
更新日期:2020-10-31 00:00:00
abstract::2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is a persistent environmental contaminant. Although experimental evidence suggests that TCDD alters thyroid hormone levels in rodents, human data are inconsistent. In 1976, a trichlorophenol plant exploded in Seveso, Italy. Women living in highly exposed areas were followed t...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwu160
更新日期:2014-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The mortality experience of 8679 members of a metal trades union--men employed in shipyards, metal fabrication shops, small boat yards, and field construction--was studied from 1950 to 1976 by the historical prospective method. Relative to rates for US men of comparable age and race, the risk of death from all causes ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1980-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The authors used a population-based birth cohort of 3,253 children (52% males) born in Brisbane, Australia, between 1981 and 1984 to prospectively examine whether maternal smoking during pregnancy was associated with offspring overweight and obesity. The authors compared mean body mass indexes (weight (kg)/height (m)2...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwj209
更新日期:2006-08-15 00:00:00
abstract::Prospective epidemiologic data on the association between vitamin D and mortality are limited, particularly in Asian populations. Among subjects in Linxian, China, the authors aimed to test whether baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations in a prospective cohort were associated with all-cause mortal...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1093/aje/kws285
更新日期:2012-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::In light of increasing obesity among the elderly, understanding the role of nutritional guidelines in preventing weight gain is of major importance. The authors evaluated the impact of the French Programme National Nutrition Santé (PNNS)-Guideline Score (GS) (maximum score, 15 points) on anthropometric changes in a la...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwp174
更新日期:2009-09-15 00:00:00
abstract::The authors investigated the role of self-reported life satisfaction in mortality with a prospective cohort study (1976-1995). A nationwide sample of healthy adults (18-64 years, n = 22,461) from the Finnish Twin Cohort responded to a questionnaire about life satisfaction and known predictors of mortality in 1975. A s...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/152.10.983
更新日期:2000-11-15 00:00:00
abstract::After diagnosis with prostate cancer, Black men in the United States have poorer survival than White men, even after controlling for differences in cancer stage. The extent to which these racial survival differences are due to biologic versus non-biologic factors is unclear, and it has been hypothesized that differenc...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010221
更新日期:2000-02-15 00:00:00
abstract::Risk factors for neonatal seizures were evaluated in 116,048 infants born between 1992 and 1994 to residents of Harris County, Texas; 207 of these infants were diagnosed with clinical neonatal seizures. Information was obtained from the infant's birth certificate to assess the relation between seizures and birth weigh...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/154.1.14
更新日期:2001-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Ninety-four strains of Venezuelan encephalitis (VE) virus isolated from sentinel hamsters exposed in the Middle American countries of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras were examined for the presence of virions with marker characteristics of strains that cause large epidemics and equine epizootics. Thirty-four st...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113531
更新日期:1983-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::It has been suggested that paternal occupational exposures to pesticides and solvents increase the risk of neural tube defects in offspring. With the use of Texas livebirth, fetal death, and linked livebirth-death records, the authors conducted a population-based case-control study among 1981-1986 Texas births to exam...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115526
更新日期:1990-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the December 1952 smog disaster in London, a substantial increase in mortality was closely associated with the increase in air pollution. Deaths from cardiovascular causes were elevated as well as respiratory deaths. The increase was greatest in the elderly. Hospital admissions were increased for both respiratory a...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117541
更新日期:1995-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Maternal angiogenic factors (placental growth factor, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (Flt-1), and soluble endoglin) may be associated with fetal growth restriction, and the associations may differ according to stage of pregnancy. Among children born to pregnant women without preeclampsia in Norway between 1992 and...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwq373
更新日期:2011-03-15 00:00:00
abstract::In 2018, the Society for Epidemiologic Research and its partner journal, the American Journal of Epidemiology, assembled a working group to develop a set of papers devoted to the "future of epidemiology." These 14 papers covered a wide range of topic areas and perspectives, from thoughts on our profession, teaching, a...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 社论
doi:10.1093/aje/kwz045
更新日期:2019-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::In a multicenter study of lung cancer in lifetime nonsmokers in the United States, 646 female lung cancer patients and 1,252 population controls were interviewed regarding history of cancer in their first-degree relatives. A 30% increased risk (95% confidence interval 0.9-1.8) was found for a history of respiratory tr...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008783
更新日期:1996-03-15 00:00:00
abstract::It has been suggested that a G-to-T transition in exon 2 of the factor XIIIA gene resulting in a substitution of leucine for valine at amino acid 34 (FXIII Val34Leu) protects against venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, the evidence to date is insufficient to incorporate testing for the FXIII Val34Leu variant into c...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1093/aje/kwj179
更新日期:2006-07-15 00:00:00
abstract::Rhinovirus infections in Seattle families with schoolchildren (1975-1979) and in selected outpatients were revealed by virus shedding or antibody rise. These observations extend those in the Seattle Virus Watch (1965-1969). Analysis of rhinovirus serotype prevalence again revealed certain "common" persisting serotypes...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114166
更新日期:1985-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::A national serosurvey was conducted in Mexico from March to October 1986 to identify predictors of dengue transmission and target areas at high risk of severe annual epidemics. A total of 3,408 households in 70 localities with populations less than 50,000 were randomly sampled, and serology was obtained from one subje...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115829
更新日期:1991-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Anthropometric characteristics, physical activity, and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, its subtypes, and B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) were evaluated in a prospective cohort study of 37,931 Iowa women who were aged 55-69 years at baseline in 1986. Through 1998, 261 cases of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (137 di...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwf082
更新日期:2002-09-15 00:00:00
abstract::Genetic epidemiology represents a hybrid of epidemiologic designs and statistical models that explicitly consider both genetic and environmental risk factors for disease. It is a relatively new field in public health; the term was first coined only 35 years ago. In this short time, the field has been through a major e...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kww001
更新日期:2016-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::This retrospective cohort study evaluated adverse birth outcomes in infants whose birth records indicated maternal residence in villages containing dumpsites potentially hazardous to health and environment. Birth records from 1997 to 2001 identified 10,073 eligible infants born to mothers in 197 Alaska Native villages...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwj241
更新日期:2006-09-15 00:00:00