Internal pilot studies I: type I error rate of the naive t-test.

Abstract:

:When sample size is recalculated using unblinded interim data, use of the usual t-test at the end of a study may lead to an elevated type I error rate. This paper describes a numerical quadrature investigation to calculate the true probability of rejection as a function of the time of the recalculation, the magnitude of the detectable treatment effect, and the ratio of the guessed to the true variance. We consider both 'restricted' designs, those that require final sample size at least as large as the originally calculated size, and 'unrestricted' designs, those that permit smaller final sample sizes than originally calculated. Our results indicate that the bias in the type I error rate is often negligible, especially in restricted designs. Some sets of parameters, however, induce non-trivial bias in the unrestricted design.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Wittes J,Schabenberger O,Zucker D,Brittain E,Proschan M

doi

10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19991230)18:24<3481::aid-s

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1999-12-30 00:00:00

pages

3481-91

issue

24

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

pii

10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19991230)18:24<3481::AID-S

journal_volume

18

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Common sense and figures: the rhetoric of validity in medicine (Bradford Hill Memorial Lecture 1999).

    abstract::Austin Bradford Hill was once a friend to The Lancet, but, as occasionally happens, friends fall out. The great legacy of his association with the journal, however, was Principles of Medical Statistics. As each edition was succeeded by another--the first in 1937, the last in 1991--he seemed to shift his view about the...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type:

    doi:10.1002/1097-0258(20001215)19:23<3149::aid-sim617>

    authors: Horton R

    更新日期:2000-12-15 00:00:00

  • Assessing surrogates as trial endpoints using mixed models.

    abstract::Having a surrogate for a definitive endpoint in a clinical trial can sometimes be useful when it is impractical, invasive or very time consuming to obtain the definitive endpoint. This paper discusses methods for assessing whether the surrogate-endpoint results of a trial can be used in place of definitive-endpoint re...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1779

    authors: Korn EL,Albert PS,McShane LM

    更新日期:2005-01-30 00:00:00

  • Design and analysis of non-inferiority mortality trials in oncology.

    abstract::The recent revision of the Declaration of Helsinki and the existence of many new therapies that affect survival or serious morbidity, and that therefore cannot be denied patients, have generated increased interest in active-control trials, particularly those intended to show equivalence or non-inferiority to the activ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1400

    authors: Rothmann M,Li N,Chen G,Chi GY,Temple R,Tsou HH

    更新日期:2003-01-30 00:00:00

  • Confidence intervals for the standardized effect arising in the comparison of two normal populations.

    abstract::Confidence intervals for a standardized effect are derived after stabilizing the variance of the Welch t-statistic. Simulation studies demonstrate the viability of the resulting intervals for a wide range of parameter values and sample sizes as small as five. The methodology is extended to the combination of results f...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2751

    authors: Kulinskaya E,Staudte RG

    更新日期:2007-06-30 00:00:00

  • Case-control analysis with a continuous outcome variable.

    abstract::It is not uncommon for a continuous outcome variable Y to be dichotomized and analysed using logistic regression. Moser and Coombs (Statist. Med. 2004; 23:1843-1860) provide a method for converting the output from a standard linear regression analysis using the original continuous outcome Y to give much more efficient...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3474

    authors: Jiang Y,Scott A,Wild CJ

    更新日期:2009-01-30 00:00:00

  • Circular-circular regression model with a spike at zero.

    abstract::With reference to a real data on cataract surgery, we discuss the problem of zero-inflated circular-circular regression when both covariate and response are circular random variables and a large proportion of the responses are zeros. The regression model is proposed, and the estimation procedure for the parameters is ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7496

    authors: Jha J,Biswas A

    更新日期:2018-01-15 00:00:00

  • Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates.

    abstract::The identification of changes in the recent trend is an important issue in the analysis of cancer mortality and incidence data. We apply a joinpoint regression model to describe such continuous changes and use the grid-search method to fit the regression function with unknown joinpoints assuming constant variance and ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::aid-sim

    authors: Kim HJ,Fay MP,Feuer EJ,Midthune DN

    更新日期:2000-02-15 00:00:00

  • Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.

    abstract::We consider the use of the assurance method in clinical trial planning. In the assurance method, which is an alternative to a power calculation, we calculate the probability of a clinical trial resulting in a successful outcome, via eliciting a prior probability distribution about the relevant treatment effect. This i...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5916

    authors: Ren S,Oakley JE

    更新日期:2014-01-15 00:00:00

  • Methods for analysing county-level mortality rates.

    abstract::The identification of counties burdened by exceptionally high rates of mortality is a fundamental step in the development of state-based intervention and prevention strategies. However, the estimation of rates from small geographic areas presents special problems, especially for rare events. This paper compares the us...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780120320

    authors: Stevenson JM,Olson DR

    更新日期:1993-02-01 00:00:00

  • Designing a pilot sequential multiple assignment randomized trial for developing an adaptive treatment strategy.

    abstract::There is growing interest in how best to adapt and readapt treatments to individuals to maximize clinical benefit. In response, adaptive treatment strategies (ATS), which operationalize adaptive, sequential clinical decision making, have been developed. From a patient's perspective an ATS is a sequence of treatments, ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4512

    authors: Almirall D,Compton SN,Gunlicks-Stoessel M,Duan N,Murphy SA

    更新日期:2012-07-30 00:00:00

  • Pros and cons of permutation tests in clinical trials.

    abstract::Hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis specifies no difference between treatment groups, is an important tool in the assessment of new medical interventions. For randomized clinical trials, permutation tests that reflect the actual randomization are design-based analyses for such hypotheses. This means that ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000530)19:10<1319::aid-s

    authors: Berger VW

    更新日期:2000-05-30 00:00:00

  • REML and ML estimation for clustered grouped survival data.

    abstract::Clustered grouped survival data arise naturally in clinical medicine and biological research. For example, in a randomized clinical trial, the variable of interest is the time to occurrence of a certain event with or without a new treatment and the data are collected from possibly correlated subjects from independent ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1323

    authors: Lam KF,Ip D

    更新日期:2003-06-30 00:00:00

  • Network-based regularization for matched case-control analysis of high-dimensional DNA methylation data.

    abstract::The matched case-control designs are commonly used to control for potential confounding factors in genetic epidemiology studies especially epigenetic studies with DNA methylation. Compared with unmatched case-control studies with high-dimensional genomic or epigenetic data, there have been few variable selection metho...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5694

    authors: Sun H,Wang S

    更新日期:2013-05-30 00:00:00

  • Prevalence-dependent diagnostic accuracy measures.

    abstract::We study prevalence-dependent diagnostic accuracy measures, specifically, positive and negative predictive values. These measures permit an assessment of the clinical utility of diagnostic tests across populations with different disease prevalences. In many cases, prevalence may not be known with certainty and the eva...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2812

    authors: Li J,Fine JP,Safdar N

    更新日期:2007-07-30 00:00:00

  • Comparison of predictive values of two diagnostic tests from the same sample of subjects using weighted least squares.

    abstract::Screening and diagnostic tests are important in disease prevention or control. The predictive values of positive and negative (PPV and NPV) test results are two of four operational characteristics of a screening test. We review an existing method based on the generalized estimating equation (GEE) methodology for compa...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2332

    authors: Wang W,Davis CS,Soong SJ

    更新日期:2006-07-15 00:00:00

  • The multiple-record systems estimator when registrations refer to different but overlapping populations.

    abstract::In multiple-record systems estimation it is usually assumed that all registration relate to the same population. In this paper, we develop a method which can be used when the registrations relate to different populations, in the sense that they cover, for example, different time periods or regions. We show that under ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1818

    authors: Zwane EN,van der Pal-de Bruin K,van der Heijden PG

    更新日期:2004-07-30 00:00:00

  • Estimating probit models with self-selected treatments.

    abstract::Outcomes research often requires estimating the impact of a binary treatment on a binary outcome in a non-randomized setting, such as the effect of taking a drug on mortality. The data often come from self-selected samples, leading to a spurious correlation between the treatment and outcome when standard binary depend...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2226

    authors: Bhattacharya J,Goldman D,McCaffrey D

    更新日期:2006-02-15 00:00:00

  • Sample size calculation for clinical trials with correlated count measurements based on the negative binomial distribution.

    abstract::Statistical inference based on correlated count measurements are frequently performed in biomedical studies. Most of existing sample size calculation methods for count outcomes are developed under the Poisson model. Deviation from the Poisson assumption (equality of mean and variance) has been widely documented in pra...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.8378

    authors: Li D,Zhang S,Cao J

    更新日期:2019-12-10 00:00:00

  • Parametric multistate survival models: Flexible modelling allowing transition-specific distributions with application to estimating clinically useful measures of effect differences.

    abstract::Multistate models are increasingly being used to model complex disease profiles. By modelling transitions between disease states, accounting for competing events at each transition, we can gain a much richer understanding of patient trajectories and how risk factors impact over the entire disease pathway. In this arti...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7448

    authors: Crowther MJ,Lambert PC

    更新日期:2017-12-20 00:00:00

  • Combining individual and aggregated data to investigate the role of socioeconomic disparities on cancer burden in Italy.

    abstract::Quantifying socioeconomic disparities and understanding the roots of inequalities are growing topics in cancer research. However, socioeconomic differences are challenging to investigate mainly due to the lack of accurate data at individual-level, while aggregate indicators are only partially informative. We implement...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.8392

    authors: Mezzetti M,Palli D,Dominici F

    更新日期:2020-01-15 00:00:00

  • Box-Cox transformation of left-censored data with application to the analysis of coronary artery calcification and pharmacokinetic data.

    abstract::Box-Cox transformation is investigated for regression models for left-censored data. Examples are provided using coronary calcification data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and pharmacokinetic data of a nicotine nasal spray. ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1925

    authors: Han C,Kronmal R

    更新日期:2004-12-15 00:00:00

  • A joint modeling and estimation method for multivariate longitudinal data with mixed types of responses to analyze physical activity data generated by accelerometers.

    abstract::A mixed effect model is proposed to jointly analyze multivariate longitudinal data with continuous, proportion, count, and binary responses. The association of the variables is modeled through the correlation of random effects. We use a quasi-likelihood type approximation for nonlinear variables and transform the prop...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7401

    authors: Li H,Zhang Y,Carroll RJ,Keadle SK,Sampson JN,Matthews CE

    更新日期:2017-11-10 00:00:00

  • Identifiability and estimation of causal mediation effects with missing data.

    abstract::Mediation analysis is a standard approach to understanding how and why an intervention works in social and medical sciences. However, the presence of missing data, especially missing not at random data, poses a great challenge for the applicability of this approach in practice. Current methods for handling such missin...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7413

    authors: Li W,Zhou XH

    更新日期:2017-11-10 00:00:00

  • Study control, violators, inclusion criteria and defining explanatory and pragmatic trials.

    abstract::Important differences between explanatory and pragmatic studies were originally argued by Schwartz and Lellouch. Three important differences between the two types of study involve study control, study violators and inclusion criteria. It was originally argued that explanatory studies are highly controlled, and pragmat...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1120

    authors: McMahon AD

    更新日期:2002-05-30 00:00:00

  • Causal inference in paired two-arm experimental studies under noncompliance with application to prognosis of myocardial infarction.

    abstract::Motivated by a study about prompt coronary angiography in myocardial infarction, we propose a method to estimate the causal effect of a treatment in two-arm experimental studies with possible noncompliance in both treatment and control arms. We base the method on a causal model for repeated binary outcomes (before and...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5856

    authors: Bartolucci F,Farcomeni A

    更新日期:2013-11-10 00:00:00

  • Effects and non-effects of paired identical observations in comparing proportions with binary matched-pairs data.

    abstract::Binary matched-pairs data occur commonly in longitudinal studies, such as in cross-over experiments. Many analyses for comparing the matched probabilities of a particular outcome do not utilize pairs having the same outcome for each observation. An example is McNemar's test. Some methodologists find this to be counter...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1002/sim.1589

    authors: Agresti A,Min Y

    更新日期:2004-01-15 00:00:00

  • A maximally selected test of symmetry about zero.

    abstract::The problem of testing symmetry about zero has a long and rich history in the statistical literature. We introduce a new test that sequentially discards observations whose absolute value is below increasing thresholds defined by the data. McNemar's statistic is obtained at each threshold and the largest is used as the...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5384

    authors: Laska E,Meisner M,Wanderling J

    更新日期:2012-11-20 00:00:00

  • Tests for individual and population bioequivalence based on generalized p-values.

    abstract::The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed new regulations that address the 'prescribability' and 'switchability' of new formulations of already-approved drugs. These new criteria are known, respectively, as population and individual bioequivalence. Two methods have been proposed in the bioequivalence li...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1346

    authors: McNally RJ,Iyer H,Mathew T

    更新日期:2003-01-15 00:00:00

  • The Integrated Calibration Index (ICI) and related metrics for quantifying the calibration of logistic regression models.

    abstract::Assessing the calibration of methods for estimating the probability of the occurrence of a binary outcome is an important aspect of validating the performance of risk-prediction algorithms. Calibration commonly refers to the agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of the outcome. Graphical methods are a...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.8281

    authors: Austin PC,Steyerberg EW

    更新日期:2019-09-20 00:00:00

  • The many weak instruments problem and Mendelian randomization.

    abstract::Instrumental variable estimates of causal effects can be biased when using many instruments that are only weakly associated with the exposure. We describe several techniques to reduce this bias and estimate corrected standard errors. We present our findings using a simulation study and an empirical application. For th...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.6358

    authors: Davies NM,von Hinke Kessler Scholder S,Farbmacher H,Burgess S,Windmeijer F,Smith GD

    更新日期:2015-02-10 00:00:00