Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease.

Abstract:

:Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

journal_name

Ecol Lett

journal_title

Ecology letters

authors

Mordecai EA,Caldwell JM,Grossman MK,Lippi CA,Johnson LR,Neira M,Rohr JR,Ryan SJ,Savage V,Shocket MS,Sippy R,Stewart Ibarra AM,Thomas MB,Villena O

doi

10.1111/ele.13335

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-10-01 00:00:00

pages

1690-1708

issue

10

eissn

1461-023X

issn

1461-0248

journal_volume

22

pub_type

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