Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns.

Abstract:

:Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change.

journal_name

Ecol Lett

journal_title

Ecology letters

authors

Diez JM,Ibáñez I,Miller-Rushing AJ,Mazer SJ,Crimmins TM,Crimmins MA,Bertelsen CD,Inouye DW

doi

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01765.x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-06-01 00:00:00

pages

545-53

issue

6

eissn

1461-023X

issn

1461-0248

journal_volume

15

pub_type

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