Abstract:
:The establishment of universal targets for HIV/AIDS control and the implementation of treatment as prevention reinforce the need for on-going clinical follow-up of persons living with HIV/AIDS as an essential element of their care, where retention in care is both a need and a challenge. This study aimed to create a predictive model for retention of persons living with HIV/AIDS in health care. A decision tree statistical model was created, based on sociodemographic, clinical, and health behavior variables, identified in a database with information from 260 persons with HIV/AIDS, enrolled in a specialized treatment service. The model enabled the identification of nine variables with significant information gains in relation to the outcome variable, probable retention in health care, and the development of 24 decision rules, giving rise to a decision tree with 80.4% correct answers, which can help identify possible strategies to optimize retention and contribute to achieving the proposed targets for confronting the epidemic in the coming years. :O estabelecimento de metas universais voltadas ao controle do HIV/aids e a instituição do tratamento como forma de prevenção reforçam a necessidade do acompanhamento clínico continuado das pessoas vivendo com HIV/aids como um elemento indispensável ao cuidado destas, sendo a retenção no cuidado em saúde uma necessidade e um desafio. Neste estudo, objetivou-se construir um modelo preditivo de retenção de pessoas vivendo com HIV/aids no cuidado em saúde. Para tanto foi construído um modelo estatístico, árvore de decisão, com base em variáveis sociodemográficas, clínicas e relacionadas aos comportamentos em saúde, identificadas em um banco de dados que contemplava informações de 260 pessoas com HIV/aids, vinculadas a um serviço especializado no atendimento a estes indivíduos. O modelo subsidiou a identificação de nove variáveis cujos ganhos de informação foram significativos em relação à variável desfecho, provável retenção no cuidado em saúde, e à construção de 24 regras de decisão, dando origem a uma árvore com porcentual de acerto de 80,4%, as quais poderão contribuir com a identificação de possíveis estratégias no sentido de otimizar a retenção e contribuir com o alcance das metas propostas para o enfrentamento da epidemia nos próximos anos. :El estabelecimiento de metas universales dirigidas al control del VIH/SIDA, y la institución del tratamiento como forma de prevención, refuerzan la necesidad del seguimiento clínico continuado de las personas que viven con VIH/SIDA, como un elemento indispensable para el cuidado de estas, siendo la retención en el cuidado de salud una necesidad y un desafío. En este estudio, el objetivo fue construir un modelo predictivo de retención de personas viviendo con VIH/SIDA dentro del ámbito del cuidado en salud. Para tal fin, se construyó un modelo estadístico, un diagrama de árbol de decisión, en base a variables sociodemográficas, clínicas, y aquellas relacionadas con los comportamientos en salud, identificadas en un banco de datos que contemplaba información de 260 personas con VIH/SIDA, vinculadas a un servicio especializado en la atención a estos individuos. El modelo subsidió la identificación de nueve variables, cuyos réditos respecto a información fueron significativos en relación con la variable desenlace, probable retención en el cuidado en salud, y a la construcción de 24 reglas de decisión, dando origen a un árbol con un porcentaje de acierto de un 80,4%, que podría contribuir a la identificación de posibles estrategias, en el sentido de optimizar la retención y contribuir al alcance de las metas propuestas para enfrentar la epidemia en los próximos años.
journal_name
Cad Saude Publicajournal_title
Cadernos de saude publicaauthors
Miranda WA,Medeiros LB,Nascimento JAD,Ribeiro KSQS,Nogueira JA,Leadebal ODCPdoi
10.1590/0102-311X00209416subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-10-22 00:00:00pages
e00209416issue
10eissn
0102-311Xissn
1678-4464pii
S0102-311X2018001005014journal_volume
34pub_type
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