Abstract:
:We posit that feasible reversal of the growth of atmospheric CH(4) and other trace gases would provide a vital contribution toward averting dangerous anthropogenic interference with global climate. Such trace gas reductions may allow stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at an achievable level of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions, even if the added global warming constituting dangerous anthropogenic interference is as small as 1 degrees C. A 1 degrees C limit on global warming, with canonical climate sensitivity, requires peak CO(2) approximately 440 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is +0.5 W/m(2), but peak CO(2) approximately 520 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is -0.5 W/m(2). The practical result is that a decline of non-CO(2) forcings allows climate forcing to be stabilized with a significantly higher transient level of CO(2) emissions. Increased "natural" emissions of CO(2), N(2)O, and CH(4) are expected in response to global warming. These emissions, an indirect effect of all climate forcings, are small compared with human-made climate forcing and occur on a time scale of a few centuries, but they tend to aggravate the task of stabilizing atmospheric composition.
journal_name
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S Aauthors
Hansen J,Sato Mdoi
10.1073/pnas.0406982101keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2004-11-16 00:00:00pages
16109-14issue
46eissn
0027-8424issn
1091-6490pii
0406982101journal_volume
101pub_type
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