Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research.

Abstract:

:Prognostic models are abundant in the medical literature yet their use in practice seems limited. In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series, the authors review how such models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

journal_name

PLoS Med

journal_title

PLoS medicine

authors

Steyerberg EW,Moons KG,van der Windt DA,Hayden JA,Perel P,Schroter S,Riley RD,Hemingway H,Altman DG,PROGRESS Group.

doi

10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2013-01-01 00:00:00

pages

e1001381

issue

2

eissn

1549-1277

issn

1549-1676

pii

PMEDICINE-D-12-02102

journal_volume

10

pub_type

杂志文章,评审
  • Pubertal timing and adult fracture risk in men: A population-based cohort study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Puberty is a critical period for bone mass accrual, and late puberty in boys is associated with reduced bone mass in adult men. The role of variations in pubertal timing within the normal range for adult fracture risk in men is, however, unknown. We, therefore, assessed the association between age at peak he...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002986

    authors: Vandenput L,Kindblom JM,Bygdell M,Nethander M,Ohlsson C

    更新日期:2019-12-02 00:00:00

  • Commercial serological antibody detection tests for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis: a systematic review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The global tuberculosis epidemic results in nearly 2 million deaths and 9 million new cases of the disease a year. The vast majority of tuberculosis patients live in developing countries, where the diagnosis of tuberculosis relies on the identification of acid-fast bacilli on unprocessed sputum smears using ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040202

    authors: Steingart KR,Henry M,Laal S,Hopewell PC,Ramsay A,Menzies D,Cunningham J,Weldingh K,Pai M

    更新日期:2007-06-01 00:00:00

  • Preeclampsia as a risk factor for diabetes: a population-based cohort study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Women with preeclampsia (PEC) and gestational hypertension (GH) exhibit insulin resistance during pregnancy, independent of obesity and glucose intolerance. Our aim was to determine whether women with PEC or GH during pregnancy have an increased risk of developing diabetes after pregnancy, and whether the pr...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001425

    authors: Feig DS,Shah BR,Lipscombe LL,Wu CF,Ray JG,Lowe J,Hwee J,Booth GL

    更新日期:2013-01-01 00:00:00

  • Timing and completeness of trial results posted at ClinicalTrials.gov and published in journals.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The US Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act requires results from clinical trials of Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs to be posted at ClinicalTrials.gov within 1 y after trial completion. We compared the timing and completeness of results of drug trials posted at ClinicalTrials.gov and publ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001566

    authors: Riveros C,Dechartres A,Perrodeau E,Haneef R,Boutron I,Ravaud P

    更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00

  • Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:While patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to dat...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000442

    authors: Riley S,Kwok KO,Wu KM,Ning DY,Cowling BJ,Wu JT,Ho LM,Tsang T,Lo SV,Chu DK,Ma ES,Peiris JS

    更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • Prescription medicines and the risk of road traffic crashes: a French registry-based study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In recent decades, increased attention has been focused on the impact of disabilities and medicinal drug use on road safety. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between prescription medicines and the risk of road traffic crashes, and estimate the attributable fraction. METHODS AND FINDIN...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000366

    authors: Orriols L,Delorme B,Gadegbeku B,Tricotel A,Contrand B,Laumon B,Salmi LR,Lagarde E,CESIR research group.

    更新日期:2010-11-16 00:00:00

  • Childhood conditions influence adult progesterone levels.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Average profiles of salivary progesterone in women vary significantly at the inter- and intrapopulation level as a function of age and acute energetic conditions related to energy intake, energy expenditure, or a combination of both. In addition to acute stressors, baseline progesterone levels differ among p...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040167

    authors: Núñez-de la Mora A,Chatterton RT,Choudhury OA,Napolitano DA,Bentley GR

    更新日期:2007-05-01 00:00:00

  • Quantification of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity by spectrophotometry: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The radical cure of Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale requires treatment with primaquine or tafenoquine to clear dormant liver stages. Either drug can induce haemolysis in individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, necessitating screening. The reference diagnostic method for G6PD activ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003084

    authors: Pfeffer DA,Ley B,Howes RE,Adu P,Alam MS,Bansil P,Boum Y 2nd,Brito M,Charoenkwan P,Clements A,Cui L,Deng Z,Egesie OJ,Espino FE,von Fricken ME,Hamid MMA,He Y,Henriques G,Khan WA,Khim N,Kim S,Lacerda M,Lon C,Me

    更新日期:2020-05-14 00:00:00

  • Safety and immune responses after a 12-month booster in healthy HIV-uninfected adults in HVTN 100 in South Africa: A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) and bivalent subtype C gp120/MF59 vaccines.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:HVTN 100 evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of an HIV subtype C pox-protein vaccine regimen, investigating a 12-month booster to extend vaccine-induced immune responses. METHODS AND FINDINGS:A phase 1-2 randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial enrolled 252 participants (210 vaccine/42 placebo; ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003038

    authors: Laher F,Moodie Z,Cohen KW,Grunenberg N,Bekker LG,Allen M,Frahm N,Yates NL,Morris L,Malahleha M,Mngadi K,Daniels B,Innes C,Saunders K,Grant S,Yu C,Gilbert PB,Phogat S,DiazGranados CA,Koutsoukos M,Van Der Meeren O,

    更新日期:2020-02-24 00:00:00

  • IL28B, HLA-C, and KIR variants additively predict response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C virus infection in a European Cohort: a cross-sectional study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:To date, drug response genes have not proved as useful in clinical practice as was anticipated at the start of the genomic era. An exception is in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection with pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin (PegIFN/R). Viral clearance is achieved in 40%...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001092

    authors: Suppiah V,Gaudieri S,Armstrong NJ,O'Connor KS,Berg T,Weltman M,Abate ML,Spengler U,Bassendine M,Dore GJ,Irving WL,Powell E,Hellard M,Riordan S,Matthews G,Sheridan D,Nattermann J,Smedile A,Müller T,Hammond E,Dunn D

    更新日期:2011-09-01 00:00:00

  • Public versus internal conceptions of addiction: An analysis of internal Philip Morris documents.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Tobacco addiction is a complex, multicomponent phenomenon stemming from nicotine's pharmacology and the user's biology, psychology, sociology, and environment. After decades of public denial, the tobacco industry now agrees with public health authorities that nicotine is addictive. In 2000, Philip Morris bec...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002562

    authors: Elias J,Hendlin YH,Ling PM

    更新日期:2018-05-01 00:00:00

  • Independent associations of fasting insulin, glucose, and glycated haemoglobin with stroke and coronary heart disease in older women.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Evidence suggests that variations in fasting glucose and insulin amongst those without frank type 2 diabetes mellitus are important determinants of cardiovascular disease. However, the relative importance of variations in fasting insulin, glucose, and glycated haemoglobin as risk factors for cardiovascular d...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040263

    authors: Lawlor DA,Fraser A,Ebrahim S,Smith GD

    更新日期:2007-08-01 00:00:00

  • Obesity, clinical, and genetic predictors for glycemic progression in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: A cohort study using the Hong Kong Diabetes Register and Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a progressive disease whereby there is often deterioration in glucose control despite escalation in treatment. There is significant heterogeneity to this progression of glycemia after onset of diabetes, yet the factors that influence glycemic progression are not well understood. Give...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003209

    authors: Jiang G,Luk AO,Tam CHT,Lau ES,Ozaki R,Chow EYK,Kong APS,Lim CKP,Lee KF,Siu SC,Hui G,Tsang CC,Lau KP,Leung JYY,Tsang MW,Kam G,Lau IT,Li JK,Yeung VT,Lau E,Lo S,Fung SKS,Cheng YL,Chow CC,Pearson ER,So WY,

    更新日期:2020-07-28 00:00:00

  • The kSORT assay to detect renal transplant patients at high risk for acute rejection: results of the multicenter AART study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Development of noninvasive molecular assays to improve disease diagnosis and patient monitoring is a critical need. In renal transplantation, acute rejection (AR) increases the risk for chronic graft injury and failure. Noninvasive diagnostic assays to improve current late and nonspecific diagnosis of reject...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001759

    authors: Roedder S,Sigdel T,Salomonis N,Hsieh S,Dai H,Bestard O,Metes D,Zeevi A,Gritsch A,Cheeseman J,Macedo C,Peddy R,Medeiros M,Vincenti F,Asher N,Salvatierra O,Shapiro R,Kirk A,Reed EF,Sarwal MM

    更新日期:2014-11-11 00:00:00

  • Sublingual misoprostol versus intramuscular oxytocin for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage in Uganda: a double-blind randomized non-inferiority trial.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a leading cause of maternal death in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the World Health Organization recommends use of oxytocin for prevention of PPH, misoprostol use is increasingly common owing to advantages in shelf life and potential for sublingual administration. There is a lac...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001752

    authors: Atukunda EC,Siedner MJ,Obua C,Mugyenyi GR,Twagirumukiza M,Agaba AG

    更新日期:2014-11-04 00:00:00

  • Toll-like receptor 2 impairs host defense in gram-negative sepsis caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei (Melioidosis).

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential in host defense against pathogens by virtue of their capacity to detect microbes and initiate the immune response. TLR2 is seen as the most important receptor for gram-positive bacteria, while TLR4 is regarded as the gram-negative TLR. Melioidosis is a severe infectio...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040248

    authors: Wiersinga WJ,Wieland CW,Dessing MC,Chantratita N,Cheng AC,Limmathurotsakul D,Chierakul W,Leendertse M,Florquin S,de Vos AF,White N,Dondorp AM,Day NP,Peacock SJ,van der Poll T

    更新日期:2007-07-31 00:00:00

  • Induction of labour at 41 weeks or expectant management until 42 weeks: A systematic review and an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised trials.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The risk of perinatal death and severe neonatal morbidity increases gradually after 41 weeks of pregnancy. Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have assessed if induction of labour (IOL) in uncomplicated pregnancies at 41 weeks will improve perinatal outcomes. We performed an individual participant da...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003436

    authors: Alkmark M,Keulen JKJ,Kortekaas JC,Bergh C,van Dillen J,Duijnhoven RG,Hagberg H,Mol BW,Molin M,van der Post JAM,Saltvedt S,Wikström AK,Wennerholm UB,de Miranda E

    更新日期:2020-12-08 00:00:00

  • Exclusion and inclusion of nonwhite ethnic minority groups in 72 North American and European cardiovascular cohort studies.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Cohort studies are recommended for understanding ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to review the process for identifying, including, and excluding ethnic minority populations in published cardiovascular cohort studies in Europe and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We found t...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030044

    authors: Ranganathan M,Bhopal R

    更新日期:2006-03-01 00:00:00

  • Midwifery continuity of care versus standard maternity care for women at increased risk of preterm birth: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness, randomised controlled pilot trial in the UK.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Midwifery continuity of care is the only health system intervention shown to reduce preterm birth (PTB) and improve perinatal survival, but no trial evidence exists for women with identified risk factors for PTB. We aimed to assess feasibility, fidelity, and clinical outcomes of a model of midwifery continui...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003350

    authors: Fernandez Turienzo C,Bick D,Briley AL,Bollard M,Coxon K,Cross P,Silverio SA,Singh C,Seed PT,Tribe RM,Shennan AH,Sandall J,POPPIE Pilot Collaborative Group.

    更新日期:2020-10-06 00:00:00

  • Achieving the HIV prevention impact of voluntary medical male circumcision: lessons and challenges for managing programs.

    abstract::Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is capable of reducing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV from females to males by approximately 60%. In 2007, the WHO and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended making VMMC part of a comprehensive HIV prevention package in countries with a ge...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001641

    authors: Sgaier SK,Reed JB,Thomas A,Njeuhmeli E

    更新日期:2014-05-06 00:00:00

  • The effects of influenza vaccination of health care workers in nursing homes: insights from a mathematical model.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Annual influenza vaccination of institutional health care workers (HCWs) is advised in most Western countries, but adherence to this recommendation is generally low. Although protective effects of this intervention for nursing home patients have been demonstrated in some clinical trials, the exact relationsh...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050200

    authors: van den Dool C,Bonten MJ,Hak E,Heijne JC,Wallinga J

    更新日期:2008-10-28 00:00:00

  • Correction: A new aging measure captures morbidity and mortality risk across diverse subpopulations from NHANES IV: A cohort study.

    abstract::[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002718.]. ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 已发布勘误

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002760

    authors: Liu Z,Kuo PL,Horvath S,Crimmins E,Ferrucci L,Levine M

    更新日期:2019-02-25 00:00:00

  • Correction: Using Qualitative Evidence in Decision Making for Health and Social Interventions: An Approach to Assess Confidence in Findings from Qualitative Evidence Syntheses (GRADE-CERQual).

    abstract::[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001895.]. ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 已发布勘误

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002065

    authors: PLOS Medicine Staff.

    更新日期:2016-06-10 00:00:00

  • Impact of nutritional supplementation during pregnancy on antibody responses to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccination in infants: A randomised trial in The Gambia.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Exposure to a nutritionally deficient environment during fetal life and early infancy may adversely alter the ontogeny of the immune system and affect an infant's ability to mount an optimal immune response to vaccination. We examined the effects of maternal nutritional supplementation during pregnancy on in...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002854

    authors: Okala SG,Darboe MK,Sosseh F,Sonko B,Faye-Joof T,Prentice AM,Moore SE

    更新日期:2019-08-06 00:00:00

  • Randomized, controlled intervention trial of male circumcision for reduction of HIV infection risk: the ANRS 1265 Trial.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Observational studies suggest that male circumcision may provide protection against HIV-1 infection. A randomized, controlled intervention trial was conducted in a general population of South Africa to test this hypothesis. METHODS AND FINDINGS:A total of 3,274 uncircumcised men, aged 18-24 y, were randomiz...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020298

    authors: Auvert B,Taljaard D,Lagarde E,Sobngwi-Tambekou J,Sitta R,Puren A

    更新日期:2005-11-01 00:00:00

  • Threats to validity in the design and conduct of preclinical efficacy studies: a systematic review of guidelines for in vivo animal experiments.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The vast majority of medical interventions introduced into clinical development prove unsafe or ineffective. One prominent explanation for the dismal success rate is flawed preclinical research. We conducted a systematic review of preclinical research guidelines and organized recommendations according to the...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001489

    authors: Henderson VC,Kimmelman J,Fergusson D,Grimshaw JM,Hackam DG

    更新日期:2013-01-01 00:00:00

  • The effect of delaying childbirth on primary cesarean section rates.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The relationship between population trends in delaying childbirth and rising rates of primary cesarean delivery is unclear. The aims of the present study were (1) to characterize the association between maternal age and the outcome of labor, (2) to determine the proportion of the increase in primary cesarean...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050144

    authors: Smith GC,Cordeaux Y,White IR,Pasupathy D,Missfelder-Lobos H,Pell JP,Charnock-Jones DS,Fleming M

    更新日期:2008-07-01 00:00:00

  • (How) can we reduce violence against women by 50% over the next 30 years?

    abstract::In this month's editorial, PLOS Medicine Editorial Board member Rachel Jewkes identifies challenges that the violence prevention research community faces in substantially reducing violence against women and girls over the next 30 years. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. ...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 社论

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001761

    authors: Jewkes R

    更新日期:2014-11-25 00:00:00

  • Experimental Treatment of Ebola Virus Disease with TKM-130803: A Single-Arm Phase 2 Clinical Trial.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:TKM-130803, a small interfering RNA lipid nanoparticle product, has been developed for the treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD), but its efficacy and safety in humans has not been evaluated. METHODS AND FINDINGS:In this single-arm phase 2 trial, adults with laboratory-confirmed EVD received 0.3 mg/kg of T...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001997

    authors: Dunning J,Sahr F,Rojek A,Gannon F,Carson G,Idriss B,Massaquoi T,Gandi R,Joseph S,Osman HK,Brooks TJ,Simpson AJ,Goodfellow I,Thorne L,Arias A,Merson L,Castle L,Howell-Jones R,Pardinaz-Solis R,Hope-Gill B,Ferri M,

    更新日期:2016-04-19 00:00:00

  • The efficacy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and artemether-lumefantrine with and without primaquine on Plasmodium vivax recurrence: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefan...

    journal_title:PLoS medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002928

    authors: Commons RJ,Simpson JA,Thriemer K,Abreha T,Adam I,Anstey NM,Assefa A,Awab GR,Baird JK,Barber BE,Chu CS,Dahal P,Daher A,Davis TME,Dondorp AM,Grigg MJ,Humphreys GS,Hwang J,Karunajeewa H,Laman M,Lidia K,Moore BR,M

    更新日期:2019-10-04 00:00:00