Construction, validation and updating of a prognostic model for kidney graft survival.

Abstract:

:The construction, validation and updating of a prognostic model for kidney graft survival is reported using data from the Eurotransplant database. First, a model is constructed for data from transplantations in the period 1984 to 1987. The model is later updated for the 1988 1990 data. The first data set was randomly split into a training set (two-thirds of the data) and a validation set (one-third). To prevent overfitting empirical Bayes estimation of the transplantation centre effect was employed. After that, the validation set was used for fine-tuning by shrinkage. For updating with the 1988 1990 data parametric models were used after suitable transformation of the time axis; it appeared that survival had slightly improved. This necessitated a correction of the parameters in the exponential model. Correctness of the model was checked by extension to a Weibull model. The lack of fit was statistically significant, but practically ignorable. Recommendations are made to place less emphasis on the selection of variables and cut-off points, and more emphasis on the fine-tuning of the prognostic model by means of low-dimensional parametric models in independent data sets.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Van Houwelingen HC,Thorogood J

doi

10.1002/sim.4780141806

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1995-09-30 00:00:00

pages

1999-2008

issue

18

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

14

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Variation in heart disease mortality across census tracts as a function of overdispersion and social class mixture.

    abstract::Variation in heart disease (HD) mortality rates across census tracts is greater than expected given binomial error and available explanatory variables. We extended an extra-binomial variation model for rates standardized by the direct method. The overdispersion parameter accounted for 36 per cent of the observed varia...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780091009

    authors: Jarjoura D,Logue E

    更新日期:1990-10-01 00:00:00

  • Evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized experiments with mixed discrete and continuous outcomes.

    abstract::A statistical definition of surrogate endpoints as well as validation criteria was first presented by Prentice. Freedman et al. supplemented these criteria with the so-called proportion explained. Buyse and Molenberghs pointed to inadequacies of these criteria and suggested a new definition of surrogacy based on (i) t...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 评论,杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.923

    authors: Molenberghs G,Geys H,Buyse M

    更新日期:2001-10-30 00:00:00

  • Construction of group sequential designs in clinical trials on the basis of detectable treatment differences.

    abstract::The treatment effect sizes that can be detected with sufficient power up to the different interim analyses constitute a clinically meaningful criterion for the selection of a group sequential test for a clinical trial. For any pre-specified sequence of effect sizes, it is possible to construct group sequential boundar...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1751

    authors: Schäfer H,Müller HH

    更新日期:2004-05-15 00:00:00

  • Analyzing longitudinal data with patients in different disease states during follow-up and death as final state.

    abstract::This paper considers the analysis of longitudinal data complicated by the fact that during follow-up patients can be in different disease states, such as remission, relapse or death. If both the response of interest (for example, quality of life (QOL)) and the amount of missing data depend on this disease state, ignor...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3755

    authors: le Cessie S,de Vries EG,Buijs C,Post WJ

    更新日期:2009-12-30 00:00:00

  • Level-adjusted funnel plots based on predicted marginal expectations: an application to prophylactic antibiotics in gallstone surgery.

    abstract::Funnel plots are widely used to visualize grouped data, for example, in institutional comparison. This paper extends the concept to a multi-level setting, displaying one level at a time, adjusted for the other levels, as well as for covariates at all levels. These level-adjusted funnel plots are based on a Markov chai...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5677

    authors: Lindhagen L,Darkahi B,Sandblom G,Berglund L

    更新日期:2014-09-20 00:00:00

  • Generalizability of causal inference in observational studies under retrospective convenience sampling.

    abstract::Many observational studies adopt what we call retrospective convenience sampling (RCS). With the sample size in each arm prespecified, RCS randomly selects subjects from the treatment-inclined subpopulation into the treatment arm and those from the control-inclined into the control arm. Samples in each arm are represe...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7808

    authors: Hu Z,Qin J

    更新日期:2018-05-20 00:00:00

  • Assessing neural activity related to decision-making through flexible odds ratio curves and their derivatives.

    abstract::It is well established that neural activity is stochastically modulated over time. Therefore, direct comparisons across experimental conditions and determination of change points or maximum firing rates are not straightforward. This study sought to compare temporal firing probability curves that may vary across groups...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4220

    authors: Roca-Pardiñas J,Cadarso-Suárez C,Pardo-Vazquez JL,Leboran V,Molenberghs G,Faes C,Acuña C

    更新日期:2011-06-30 00:00:00

  • Mixtures of proportional hazards regression models.

    abstract::This paper presents a mixture model which combines features of the usual Cox proportional hazards model with those of a class of models, known as mixtures-of-experts. The resulting model is more flexible than the usual Cox model in the sense that the log hazard ratio is allowed to vary non-linearly as a function of th...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990515)18:9<1119::aid-si

    authors: Rosen O,Tanner M

    更新日期:1999-05-15 00:00:00

  • Non-parametric estimation of the post-lead-time survival distribution of screen-detected cancer cases.

    abstract::The goal of screening programmes for cancer is early detection and treatment with a consequent reduction in mortality from the disease. Screening programmes need to assess the true benefit of screening, that is, the length of time of extension of survival beyond the time of advancement of diagnosis (lead-time). This p...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780142410

    authors: Xu JL,Prorok PC

    更新日期:1995-12-30 00:00:00

  • Combining biomarkers for classification with covariate adjustment.

    abstract::Combining multiple markers can improve classification accuracy compared with using a single marker. In practice, covariates associated with markers or disease outcome can affect the performance of a biomarker or biomarker combination in the population. The covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) cur...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7274

    authors: Kim S,Huang Y

    更新日期:2017-07-10 00:00:00

  • Two-stage testing using selection schemes.

    abstract::In this paper, we consider pooling schemes in which samples are to be tested in two-stages. We show that when batch size is limited as well as pool size, selection schemes tend to be more efficient and flexible. Formulae for the efficiencies of square arrays in all dimensions and for all selection schemes are given in...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3965

    authors: Sudbury A

    更新日期:2010-09-20 00:00:00

  • Modelling heterogeneity in clustered count data with extra zeros using compound Poisson random effect.

    abstract::In medical and health studies, heterogeneities in clustered count data have been traditionally modeled by positive random effects in Poisson mixed models; however, excessive zeros often occur in clustered medical and health count data. In this paper, we consider a three-level random effects zero-inflated Poisson model...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3619

    authors: Ma R,Hasan MT,Sneddon G

    更新日期:2009-08-15 00:00:00

  • A practical approach for the assessment of bioequivalence under selected higher-order cross-over designs.

    abstract::The two-period cross-over design with two sequences of drug administration is a standard experimental design when bioequivalence of one test formulation is to be assessed in comparison with a reference formulation. Previously, an approach based on Fieller's confidence interval has been presented for the assessment of ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19971015)16:19<2229::aid-s

    authors: Vuorinen J

    更新日期:1997-10-15 00:00:00

  • Local influence measure of zero-inflated generalized Poisson mixture regression models.

    abstract::In many practical applications, count data often exhibit greater or less variability than allowed by the equality of mean and variance, referred to as overdispersion/underdispersion, and there are several reasons that may lead to the overdispersion/underdispersion such as zero inflation and mixture. Moreover, if the c...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5560

    authors: Chen XD,Fu YZ,Wang XR

    更新日期:2013-04-15 00:00:00

  • Goodness-of-fit test for proportional subdistribution hazards model.

    abstract::This paper concerns using modified weighted Schoenfeld residuals to test the proportionality of subdistribution hazards for the Fine-Gray model, similar to the tests proposed by Grambsch and Therneau for independently censored data. We develop a score test for the time-varying coefficients based on the modified Schoen...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5815

    authors: Zhou B,Fine J,Laird G

    更新日期:2013-09-30 00:00:00

  • Generalized linear model for partially ordered data.

    abstract::Within the rich literature on generalized linear models, substantial efforts have been devoted to models for categorical responses that are either completely ordered or completely unordered. Few studies have focused on the analysis of partially ordered outcomes, which arise in practically every area of study, includin...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4318

    authors: Zhang Q,Ip EH

    更新日期:2012-01-13 00:00:00

  • Effect of regression to the mean in the presence of within-subject variability.

    abstract::Regression to the mean arises often in statistical applications where the units chosen for study relate to some observed characteristic in the extreme of its distribution. Gardner and Heady attribute the effect of regression to the mean to measurement errors. They assume the model Yi = U + ei, where U is a fixed withi...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780100812

    authors: Johnson WD,George VT

    更新日期:1991-08-01 00:00:00

  • Models for diagnosing chest pain: is CART helpful?

    abstract::The use of classification and regression tree (CART) methodology is explored for the diagnosis of patients complaining of anterior chest pain. The results are compared with those previously obtained using correspondence analysis and independent Bayes classification. The technique is shown to be of potential value for ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19970415)16:7<717::aid-sim

    authors: Crichton NJ,Hinde JP,Marchini J

    更新日期:1997-04-15 00:00:00

  • Testing the equality of two Poisson means using the rate ratio.

    abstract::In this article, we investigate procedures for comparing two independent Poisson variates that are observed over unequal sampling frames (i.e. time intervals, populations, areas or any combination thereof). We consider two statistics (with and without the logarithmic transformation) for testing the equality of two Poi...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1949

    authors: Ng HK,Tang ML

    更新日期:2005-03-30 00:00:00

  • Simple methods for checking for possible errors in reported odds ratios, relative risks and confidence intervals.

    abstract::Meta-analyses of data from epidemiological studies are often based on odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and their 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) as reported by the authors. Where possible ORs, RRs and CIs should be checked against the source data. Some simple methods are presented for checking the vali...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990815)18:15<1973::aid-s

    authors: Lee PN

    更新日期:1999-08-15 00:00:00

  • Exploring the benefits of adaptive sequential designs in time-to-event endpoint settings.

    abstract::Sequential analysis is frequently employed to address ethical and financial issues in clinical trials. Sequential analysis may be performed using standard group sequential designs, or, more recently, with adaptive designs that use estimates of treatment effect to modify the maximal statistical information to be collec...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4156

    authors: Emerson SC,Rudser KD,Emerson SS

    更新日期:2011-05-20 00:00:00

  • Small clinical trials: are they all bad?

    abstract::Statisticians have long argued that randomized controlled trials should be sufficiently large to achieve their purpose, and for common diseases with major public health implications this has brought many benefits. However, there are many instances where it is unrealistic to expect clinicians to provide the information...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780140204

    authors: Matthews JN

    更新日期:1995-01-30 00:00:00

  • Likelihood-based analysis of outcome-dependent sampling designs with longitudinal data.

    abstract::The use of outcome-dependent sampling with longitudinal data analysis has previously been shown to improve efficiency in the estimation of regression parameters. The motivating scenario is when outcome data exist for all cohort members but key exposure variables will be gathered only on a subset. Inference with outcom...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7633

    authors: Zelnick LR,Schildcrout JS,Heagerty PJ

    更新日期:2018-06-15 00:00:00

  • Optimal three-stage designs for phase II cancer clinical trials.

    abstract::The objective of a phase II cancer clinical trial is to screen a treatment that can produce a similar or better response rate compared to the current treatment results. This screening is usually carried out in two stages as proposed by Simon. For ineffective treatment, the trial should terminate at the first stage. En...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19971215)16:23<2701::aid-s

    authors: Chen TT

    更新日期:1997-12-15 00:00:00

  • A boundary-optimized rejection region test for the two-sample binomial problem.

    abstract::Testing the equality of 2 proportions for a control group versus a treatment group is a well-researched statistical problem. In some settings, there may be strong historical data that allow one to reliably expect that the control proportion is one, or nearly so. While one-sample tests or comparisons to historical cont...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7579

    authors: Gabriel EE,Nason M,Fay MP,Follmann DA

    更新日期:2018-03-30 00:00:00

  • Additive and multiplicative covariate regression models for relative survival incorporating fractional polynomials for time-dependent effects.

    abstract::Relative survival is used to estimate patient survival excluding causes of death not related to the disease of interest. Rather than using cause of death information from death certificates, which is often poorly recorded, relative survival compares the observed survival to that expected in a matched group from the ge...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2399

    authors: Lambert PC,Smith LK,Jones DR,Botha JL

    更新日期:2005-12-30 00:00:00

  • Estimating time-dependent ROC curves using data under prevalent sampling.

    abstract::Prevalent sampling is frequently a convenient and economical sampling technique for the collection of time-to-event data and thus is commonly used in studies of the natural history of a disease. However, it is biased by design because it tends to recruit individuals with longer survival times. This paper considers est...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7184

    authors: Li S

    更新日期:2017-04-15 00:00:00

  • Nonparametric collective spectral density estimation with an application to clustering the brain signals.

    abstract::In this paper, we develop a method for the simultaneous estimation of spectral density functions (SDFs) for a collection of stationary time series that share some common features. Due to the similarities among the SDFs, the log-SDF can be represented using a common set of basis functions. The basis shared by the colle...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7972

    authors: Maadooliat M,Sun Y,Chen T

    更新日期:2018-12-30 00:00:00

  • Racial/ethnic disparities in vaccination coverage by 19 months of age: an evaluation of the impact of missing data resulting from record scattering.

    abstract::We describe how trends in the vaccination coverage at 19 months of age vary by race/ethnicity; explore the extent to which data required to evaluate a child's up-to-date vaccination status is missing as a result of the scattering of vaccination records among many vaccination providers; evaluate how the prevalence of t...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3223

    authors: Smith PJ,Stevenson J

    更新日期:2008-09-10 00:00:00

  • Nonparametric estimation of broad sense agreement between ordinal and censored continuous outcomes.

    abstract::The concept of broad sense agreement (BSA) has recently been proposed for studying the relationship between a continuous measurement and an ordinal measurement. They developed a nonparametric procedure for estimating the BSA index, which is only applicable to completely observed data. In this work, we consider the pro...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.8523

    authors: Dai T,Guo Y,Peng L,Manatunga A

    更新日期:2020-06-30 00:00:00