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Development of a model for prediction of survival in pediatric trauma patients: comparison of artificial neural networks and logistic regression.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE:There is a paucity of outcome prediction models for injured children. Using the National Pediatric Trauma Registry (NPTR), the authors developed an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict pediatric trauma death and compared it with logistic regression (LR). METHODS:Patients in the NPTR from 1996 through 1999 were included. Models were generated using LR and ANN. A data search engine was used to generate the ANN with the best fit for the data. Input variables included anatomic and physiologic characteristics. There was a single output variable: probability of death. Assessment of the models was for both discrimination (ROC area under the curve) and calibration (Lemeshow-Hosmer C-Statistic). RESULTS:There were 35,385 patients. The average age was 8.1 +/- 5.1 years, and there were 1,047 deaths (3.0%). Both modeling systems gave excellent discrimination (ROC A(z): LR = 0.964, ANN = 0.961). However, LR had only fair calibration, whereas the ANN model had excellent calibration (L/H C stat: LR = 36, ANN = 10.5). CONCLUSIONS:The authors were able to develop an ANN model for the prediction of pediatric trauma death, which yielded excellent discrimination and calibration exceeding that of logistic regression. This model can be used by trauma centers to benchmark their performance in treating the pediatric trauma population.

journal_name

J Pediatr Surg

journal_title

Journal of pediatric surgery

authors

DiRusso SM,Chahine AA,Sullivan T,Risucci D,Nealon P,Cuff S,Savino J,Slim M

doi

10.1053/jpsu.2002.33885

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-07-01 00:00:00

pages

1098-104; discussion 1098-104

issue

7

eissn

0022-3468

issn

1531-5037

pii

S0022346802000349

journal_volume

37

pub_type

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