Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Concerns have been raised that aging of the general population will increase the demand for blood products. Modeling can be applied to assess trends in blood demand and supply and predict how these will develop over time. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS:We developed mathematical models to describe and predict the national demand of red blood cell (RBC) products. The first demand model assumes that the mean numbers of transfusions per inhabitant per age and sex are constant. A second demand model incorporates observed changes in clinical blood use over time. Further, a donation model is developed to predict future RBC supply. To estimate the supply of whole blood donations, we used annual donor retention rates, donor recruitment rates, and mean numbers of donations per donor year. RESULTS:The model based on demography only predicts an increase of 23% in RBC demand over 2008 to 2015. The second model, incorporating both demographic changes and trends in clinical RBC use, predicts a decrease of RBC demand by 8% over the same period. The predicted RBC supply closely follows the demand as predicted by the second model. CONCLUSIONS:Despite an aging population, RBC demand may not increase as much as predicted in other studies. This depends on the extent to which other effects, like that of optimal blood use, will neutralize the effects of aging of the transfusion recipient population. Still, the observed downward trend in donor recruitment in the Netherlands must be stopped to maintain a sufficient RBC supply.
journal_name
Transfusionjournal_title
Transfusionauthors
Borkent-Raven BA,Janssen MP,Van Der Poel CLdoi
10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02716.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2010-11-01 00:00:00pages
2455-60issue
11eissn
0041-1132issn
1537-2995pii
TRF2716journal_volume
50pub_type
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