Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Diabetes mellitus can occur after acute pancreatitis (AP), but there are currently no tools for evaluating the risk of developing diabetes after an attack of AP. The aim of the study was to develop a nomogram for prediction of new-onset diabetes mellitus after the first attack of AP. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We enrolled 616 patients with first-attack AP. We collected and statistically analyzed demographic data (age, BMI, and duration of hospitalization) and laboratory data (glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and cholesterol). RESULTS:Univariate analysis suggested duration of hospitalization (P=0.0003), BMI (P=0.0059), cholesterol (P=0.0005), triglyceride (P=0.0005), hemoglobin (P=0.0229), and glucose (P<0.001) at admission were significantly associated with newly developed diabetes after the first-attack AP. Multivariate analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR)=1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.03; P=0.045], BMI (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12; P=0.018), glucose (OR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; P=0.008), triglyceride (OR=1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06; P=0.035), and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.00-1.38; P=0.044) at admission were important predictors. CONCLUSION:The nomogram is a potentially clinically useful tool for predicting new-onset diabetes, which is currently clinically unprecedented. This finding is not confined to the patients with severe AP but is also for patients who have recovered from mild AP. The nomogram must to be validated externally.
journal_name
Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatoljournal_title
European journal of gastroenterology & hepatologyauthors
Ma JH,Yuan YJ,Lin SH,Pan JYdoi
10.1097/MEG.0000000000001307subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-03-01 00:00:00pages
323-328issue
3eissn
0954-691Xissn
1473-5687journal_volume
31pub_type
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