Bayesian predictive approach to interim monitoring in clinical trials.

Abstract:

:This paper reviews Bayesian strategies for monitoring clinical trial data. It focuses on a Bayesian stochastic curtailment method based on the predictive probability of observing a clinically significant outcome at the scheduled end of the study given the observed data. The proposed method is applied to derive efficacy and futility stopping rules in clinical trials with continuous, normally distributed and binary endpoints. The sensitivity of the resulting stopping rules to the choice of prior distributions is examined and guidelines for choosing a prior distribution of the treatment effect are discussed. The Bayesian predictive approach is compared to the frequentist (conditional power) and mixed Bayesian-frequentist (predictive power) approaches. The interim monitoring strategies discussed in the paper are illustrated using examples from a small proof-of-concept study and a large mortality trial.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Dmitrienko A,Wang MD

doi

10.1002/sim.2204

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2006-07-15 00:00:00

pages

2178-95

issue

13

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

25

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Optimal designs for Michaelis-Menten kinetic studies.

    abstract::Many reactions in enzymology are governed by the Michaelis-Menten equation. Characterising these reactions requires the estimation of the parameters K(M) and V(max) which determine the Michaelis-Menten equation and this is done by observing rates of reactions at a set of substrate concentrations. The choice of substra...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1612

    authors: Matthews JN,Allcock GC

    更新日期:2004-02-15 00:00:00

  • The many weak instruments problem and Mendelian randomization.

    abstract::Instrumental variable estimates of causal effects can be biased when using many instruments that are only weakly associated with the exposure. We describe several techniques to reduce this bias and estimate corrected standard errors. We present our findings using a simulation study and an empirical application. For th...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.6358

    authors: Davies NM,von Hinke Kessler Scholder S,Farbmacher H,Burgess S,Windmeijer F,Smith GD

    更新日期:2015-02-10 00:00:00

  • Identifying representative trees from ensembles.

    abstract::Tree-based methods have become popular for analyzing complex data structures where the primary goal is risk stratification of patients. Ensemble techniques improve the accuracy in prediction and address the instability in a single tree by growing an ensemble of trees and aggregating. However, in the process, individua...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4492

    authors: Banerjee M,Ding Y,Noone AM

    更新日期:2012-07-10 00:00:00

  • Improving propensity score weighting using machine learning.

    abstract::Machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) have been suggested as promising alternatives to logistic regression for the estimation of propensity scores. The authors examined the performance of various CART-based propensity score models using simulated data. Hypothetical studies of v...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.3782

    authors: Lee BK,Lessler J,Stuart EA

    更新日期:2010-02-10 00:00:00

  • Multivariate joint frailty model for the analysis of nonlinear tumor kinetics and dynamic predictions of death.

    abstract::The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors are used as standard guidelines for the clinical evaluation of cancer treatments. The assessment is based on the anatomical tumor burden: change in size of target lesions and evolution of nontarget lesions (NTL). Despite unquestionable advantages of this standard tool, ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7640

    authors: Król A,Tournigand C,Michiels S,Rondeau V

    更新日期:2018-06-15 00:00:00

  • Bayesian methods to compare dose levels with placebo in a small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial.

    abstract::Clinical trials studying treatments for rare diseases are challenging to design and conduct due to the limited number of patients eligible for the trial. One design used to address this challenge is the small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART). We propose a new snSMART design that investiga...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.8813

    authors: Fang F,Hochstedler KA,Tamura RN,Braun TM,Kidwell KM

    更新日期:2021-02-20 00:00:00

  • Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects for latent subgroups in observational studies.

    abstract::Individuals may vary in their responses to treatment, and identification of subgroups differentially affected by a treatment is an important issue in medical research. The risk of misleading subgroup analyses has become well known, and some exploratory analyses can be helpful in clarifying how covariates potentially i...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7970

    authors: Kim HJ,Lu B,Nehus EJ,Kim MO

    更新日期:2019-02-10 00:00:00

  • The trend odds model for ordinal data.

    abstract::Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and t...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5689

    authors: Capuano AW,Dawson JD

    更新日期:2013-06-15 00:00:00

  • Pros and cons of permutation tests in clinical trials.

    abstract::Hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis specifies no difference between treatment groups, is an important tool in the assessment of new medical interventions. For randomized clinical trials, permutation tests that reflect the actual randomization are design-based analyses for such hypotheses. This means that ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000530)19:10<1319::aid-s

    authors: Berger VW

    更新日期:2000-05-30 00:00:00

  • Differences in surrogate threshold effect estimates between original and simplified correlation-based validation approaches.

    abstract::Surrogate endpoint validation has been well established by the meta-analytical correlation-based approach as outlined in the seminal work of Buyse et al. (Biostatistics, 2000). Surrogacy can be assumed if strong associations on individual and study levels can be demonstrated. Alternatively, if an effect on a true endp...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.6778

    authors: Schürmann C,Sieben W

    更新日期:2016-03-30 00:00:00

  • A comparison of group sequential methods for binary longitudinal data.

    abstract::Interim analyses are conducted to allow for early termination of the trial, for ethical as well as economical reasons. Here we consider interim analyses in repeated measurements studies where the measurements are binary. Two methods for analysing this kind of data are compared according to their operating characterist...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1361

    authors: Spiessens B,Lesaffre E,Verbeke G

    更新日期:2003-02-28 00:00:00

  • Application of kriging models for a drug combination experiment on lung cancer.

    abstract::Combinatorial drugs have been widely applied in disease treatment, especially chemotherapy for cancer, due to its improved efficacy and reduced toxicity compared with individual drugs. The study of combinatorial drugs requires efficient experimental designs and proper follow-up statistical modeling techniques. Linear ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7971

    authors: Xiao Q,Wang L,Xu H

    更新日期:2019-01-30 00:00:00

  • Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programmes: a dynamic perspective.

    abstract::Although there are many models which are used to calculate the health benefits (and thus the cost-effectiveness) of vaccination programmes, they can be divided into two groups: those which assume a constant force of infection, that is a constant per-susceptible rate of infection; and those which assume that the force ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19991215)18:23<3263::aid-s

    authors: Edmunds WJ,Medley GF,Nokes DJ

    更新日期:1999-12-15 00:00:00

  • Statistical estimation of parameters in a disease transmission model: analysis of a Cryptosporidium outbreak.

    abstract::Population dynamic models, commonly used tools in the study of epidemics and other complex population processes, are implicit non-linear mathematical equations. Inference based on such models can be difficult due to the problems associated with high dimensional parameters that may be non-identified and complex likelih...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1258

    authors: Brookhart MA,Hubbard AE,van der Laan MJ,Colford JM Jr,Eisenberg JN

    更新日期:2002-12-15 00:00:00

  • Policy developments in regulatory approval.

    abstract::Although radical changes in drug regulation are rare (e.g., the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act of 1938 and the 1962 amendment to the Act creating an effectiveness requirement), regulations and guidance do evolve significantly in the face of new problems and accumulating experience. Recent changes have been driven...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1298

    authors: Temple R

    更新日期:2002-10-15 00:00:00

  • Explaining heterogeneity in meta-analysis: a comparison of methods.

    abstract::Exploring the possible reasons for heterogeneity between studies is an important aspect of conducting a meta-analysis. This paper compares a number of methods which can be used to investigate whether a particular covariate, with a value defined for each study in the meta-analysis, explains any heterogeneity. The main ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19991030)18:20<2693::aid-s

    authors: Thompson SG,Sharp SJ

    更新日期:1999-10-30 00:00:00

  • Assessing surrogates as trial endpoints using mixed models.

    abstract::Having a surrogate for a definitive endpoint in a clinical trial can sometimes be useful when it is impractical, invasive or very time consuming to obtain the definitive endpoint. This paper discusses methods for assessing whether the surrogate-endpoint results of a trial can be used in place of definitive-endpoint re...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1779

    authors: Korn EL,Albert PS,McShane LM

    更新日期:2005-01-30 00:00:00

  • A sexually transmitted infection screening algorithm based on semiparametric regression models.

    abstract::Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis are among the most common infectious diseases in the United States, disproportionately affecting young women. Because a significant portion of the infections present no symptoms, infection control relies...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.6515

    authors: Li Z,Liu H,Tu W

    更新日期:2015-09-10 00:00:00

  • Competing risks analysis of patients with osteosarcoma: a comparison of four different approaches.

    abstract::In failure time studies involving a chronic disease such as cancer, several competing causes of mortality may be operating. Commonly, the conventional statistical technique of Kaplan-Meier, which is only meaningfully interpreted by assuming independence of failure types and the censoring mechanism, is employed in clin...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1002/sim.711

    authors: Tai BC,Machin D,White I,Gebski V,EOI (The European Osteosarcoma Intergroup).

    更新日期:2001-03-15 00:00:00

  • Generalization of normal discriminant analysis using Fourier series density estimators. Transfusion Safety Study Group.

    abstract::In this paper we examine the efficiency of a generalization of the traditional normal linear (LDA) or quadratic (QDA) discriminant analysis. This procedure (the generalized discriminant analysis, GDA) replaces each normal density used in the traditional classification rule by a Fourier series density estimator which '...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780100319

    authors: Odom-Maryon T,Langholz B,Niland J,Azen S

    更新日期:1991-03-01 00:00:00

  • Composite sequential Monte Carlo test for post-market vaccine safety surveillance.

    abstract::Group sequential hypothesis testing is now widely used to analyze prospective data. If Monte Carlo simulation is used to construct the signaling threshold, the challenge is how to manage the type I error probability for each one of the multiple tests without losing control on the overall significance level. This paper...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.6805

    authors: Silva IR

    更新日期:2016-04-30 00:00:00

  • Estimating the stage-specific numbers of HIV infection using a Markov model and back-calculation.

    abstract::The back-calculation method has been used to estimate the number of HIV infections from AIDS incidence data in a particular population. We present an extension of back calculation that provides estimates of the numbers of HIV infectives in different stages of infection. We model the staging process with a time-depende...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780110612

    authors: Longini IM Jr,Byers RH,Hessol NA,Tan WY

    更新日期:1992-04-01 00:00:00

  • Modification of the sample size and the schedule of interim analyses in survival trials based on data inspections.

    abstract::A method is presented which allows us to adapt the sample size as well as the number and time points of interim analyses to the treatment difference observed at an interim look during the course of a clinical trial with censored survival time as the endpoint. The method allows the inclusion of data inspections during ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.1136

    authors: Schäfer H,Müller HH

    更新日期:2001-12-30 00:00:00

  • Statistical inferences of extended concentration indices for directly standardized rates.

    abstract::The relative concentration index (RCI) and the absolute concentration index (ACI) have been widely used for monitoring health disparities with ranked health determinants. The RCI has been extended to allow value judgments about inequality aversion by Pereira in 1998 and by Wagstaff in 2002. Previous studies of the ext...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7952

    authors: Yu M,Liu B,Li Y,Zou ZJ,Breen N

    更新日期:2019-01-15 00:00:00

  • Practical issues in data monitoring of clinical trials: summary of responses to a questionnaire at NIH.

    abstract::A targeted poll was undertaken to compare and contrast models of data monitoring of randomized clinical trials sponsored by the National Institutes of Health. In an attempt to represent the institutes which conduct clinical trials, twelve individuals were selected and asked to respond to a questionnaire specifically p...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.4780120520

    authors: Geller NL,Stylianou M

    更新日期:1993-03-01 00:00:00

  • Reducing cost in sequential testing: a limit of indifference approach.

    abstract::In noninferiority studies, a limit of indifference is used to express a tolerance in results such that the clinician would regard such results as being acceptable or 'not worse'. We applied this concept to a measure of accuracy, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, for a sequence of tests. We expressed a...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5741

    authors: Ahmed AE,Schubert CM,McClish DK

    更新日期:2013-07-20 00:00:00

  • Correcting covariate-dependent measurement error with non-zero mean.

    abstract::There are many settings in which the distribution of error in a mismeasured covariate varies with the value of another covariate. Take, for example, the case of HIV phylogenetic cluster size, large values of which are an indication of rapid HIV transmission. Researchers wish to find behavioral correlates of HIV phylog...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.7289

    authors: Parveen N,Moodie E,Brenner B

    更新日期:2017-07-30 00:00:00

  • Estimating the completeness of prevalence based on cancer registry data.

    abstract::Prevalence data provided by cancer registries are generally biased, since the patients that were diagnosed before the starting of the registry's activity cannot be included in the statistics. The relevance of this incompleteness bias is estimated in this paper. Incidence and relative survival are modelled as parametri...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19970228)16:4<425::aid-sim

    authors: Capocaccia R,De Angelis R

    更新日期:1997-02-28 00:00:00

  • A method for meta-analysis of molecular association studies.

    abstract::Although population-based molecular association studies are becoming increasingly popular, methodology for the meta-analysis of these studies has been neglected, particularly with regard to two issues: testing Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE), and pooling results in a manner that reflects a biological model of gene ef...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.2010

    authors: Thakkinstian A,McElduff P,D'Este C,Duffy D,Attia J

    更新日期:2005-05-15 00:00:00

  • Extending the c-statistic to nominal polytomous outcomes: the Polytomous Discrimination Index.

    abstract::Diagnostic problems in medicine are sometimes polytomous, meaning that the outcome has more than two distinct categories. For example, ovarian tumors can be benign, borderline, primary invasive, or metastatic. Extending the main measure of binary discrimination, the c-statistic or area under the ROC curve, to nominal ...

    journal_title:Statistics in medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/sim.5321

    authors: Van Calster B,Van Belle V,Vergouwe Y,Timmerman D,Van Huffel S,Steyerberg EW

    更新日期:2012-10-15 00:00:00