Abstract:
:Cyber conflict is now a common and potentially dangerous occurrence. The target typically faces a strategic choice based on its ability to attribute the attack to a specific perpetrator and whether it has a viable punishment at its disposal. We present a game-theoretic model, in which the best strategic choice for the victim depends on the vulnerability of the attacker, the knowledge level of the victim, payoffs for different outcomes, and the beliefs of each player about their opponent. The resulting blame game allows analysis of four policy-relevant questions: the conditions under which peace (i.e., no attacks) is stable, when attacks should be tolerated, the consequences of asymmetric technical attribution capabilities, and when a mischievous third party or an accident can undermine peace. Numerous historical examples illustrate how the theory applies to cases of cyber or kinetic conflict involving the United States, Russia, China, Japan, North Korea, Estonia, Israel, Iran, and Syria.
journal_name
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S Aauthors
Edwards B,Furnas A,Forrest S,Axelrod Rdoi
10.1073/pnas.1700442114subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-03-14 00:00:00pages
2825-2830issue
11eissn
0027-8424issn
1091-6490pii
1700442114journal_volume
114pub_type
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