Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics.

Abstract:

:A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.

authors

Becker AD,Birger RB,Teillant A,Gastanaduy PA,Wallace GS,Grenfell BT

doi

10.1073/pnas.1604976113

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-12-20 00:00:00

pages

14595-14600

issue

51

eissn

0027-8424

issn

1091-6490

pii

1604976113

journal_volume

113

pub_type

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