Abstract:
:Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Morand S,Owers KA,Waret-Szkuta A,McIntyre KM,Baylis Mdoi
10.1038/srep01774subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-01-01 00:00:00pages
1774issn
2045-2322pii
srep01774journal_volume
3pub_type
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