Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy.

Abstract:

:The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.

journal_name

J Neurol Sci

authors

Bergamaschi R,Montomoli C,Candeloro E,Monti MC,Cioccale R,Bernardinelli L,Fratino P,Cosi V,PREMS (Pavia REgister of Multiple Sclerosis) Group.

doi

10.1016/j.jns.2006.01.013

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2006-05-15 00:00:00

pages

127-31

issue

1-2

eissn

0022-510X

issn

1878-5883

pii

S0022-510X(06)00033-5

journal_volume

244

pub_type

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