Abstract:
:Conventional interpretation of clinical trials relies heavily on the classic p value. The p value, however, represents only a false-positive rate, and does not tell the probability that the investigator's hypothesis is correct, given his observations. This more relevant posterior probability can be quantified by an extension of Bayes' theorem to the analysis of statistical tests, in a manner similar to that already widely used for diagnostic tests. Reanalysis of several published clinical trials according to Bayes' theorem shows several important limitations of classic statistical analysis. Classic analysis is most misleading when the hypothesis in question is already unlikely to be true, when the baseline event rate is low, or when the observed differences are small. In such cases, false-positive and false-negative conclusions occur frequently, even when the study is large, when interpretation is based solely on the p value. These errors can be minimized if revised policies for analysis and reporting of clinical trials are adopted that overcome the known limitations of classic statistical theory with applicable bayesian conventions.
journal_name
Ann Intern Medjournal_title
Annals of internal medicineauthors
Diamond GA,Forrester JSdoi
10.7326/0003-4819-98-3-385subject
Has Abstractpub_date
1983-03-01 00:00:00pages
385-94issue
3eissn
0003-4819issn
1539-3704journal_volume
98pub_type
杂志文章abstract::The content of In the Clinic is drawn from the clinical information and education resources of the American College of Physicians (ACP), including PIER (Physicians' Information and Education Resource) and MKSAP (Medical Knowledge and Self Assessment Program). Annals of Internal Medicine editors develop In the Clinic f...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-151-11-200912010-01006
更新日期:2009-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Recent reviews have suggested a higher frequency of the lupus anticoagulant or related antiphospholipid antibodies in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (21% to 65%) than was found in earlier studies (6% to 18%). In our study of 60 consecutive patients, we found the frequency of the lupus anticoagulant by Russ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-106-4-524
更新日期:1987-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors slow renal disease progression and reduce cardiac morbidity and mortality in patients with diabetes. Patients' out-of-pocket costs pose a barrier to using this effective therapy. OBJECTIVE:To estimate the cost-effectiveness to Medicare of first-dollar coverage ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-143-2-200507190-00007
更新日期:2005-07-19 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To validate prospectively the use of an artificial neural network to identify myocardial infarction in patients presenting to an emergency department with anterior chest pain. DESIGN:Prospective, blinded testing. SETTING:Tertiary university teaching center. PATIENTS:A total of 331 consecutive adult patient...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-115-11-843
更新日期:1991-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The content, role, and purpose of internal medicine, organized as an American specialty 100 years ago, have been marked by ambivalence from the beginning. Nevertheless, molded to a large extent by external events, including the strategic and symbolic importance of surgery in American medicine, the rise of university m...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-105-4-592
更新日期:1986-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::We report a case of combined idiopathic immune neutropenia and immune thrombocytopenia (thromboneutropenia). Therapy with prednisone was ineffective. Treatment with vincristine raised the patient's platelet count but did not increase the neutrophil count. Splenectomy led to a prompt complete remission. Using radioimmu...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-93-5-704
更新日期:1980-11-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The magnitude, consistency, and manner of association between sedentary time and outcomes independent of physical activity remain unclear. PURPOSE:To quantify the association between sedentary time and hospitalizations, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer in adults independent ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.7326/M14-1651
更新日期:2015-01-20 00:00:00
abstract:DESCRIPTION:Update of the 2009 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for breast cancer. METHODS:The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the following: effectiveness of breast cancer screening in reducing breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality, as well as the incidence of advanced...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,实务指引
doi:10.7326/M15-2886
更新日期:2016-02-16 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:To describe the clinical and epidemiologic features of Vibrio vulnificus infections. DESIGN:Case series based on notifiable disease report forms and patient medical records. SETTING:Cases reported to the Florida Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services from 1981 to 1987. PATIENTS:Sixty-two pa...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-109-4-318
更新日期:1988-08-15 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine the causes of persistent dizziness in outpatients. DESIGN:Consecutive adult outpatients presenting with a chief complaint of dizziness. SETTING:Four clinics (internal medicine, walk-in, emergency room, and neurology) in a teaching hospital. PATIENTS:Of 185 patients presenting during the 10-mon...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-117-11-898
更新日期:1992-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Identical male twins had alveolar cell carcinoma with nearly synchronous onset and similar histopathologic features, both metastatic to the brain. The hypothesis is advanced that there are genes shared by these twins that determine not only the susceptibility of pulmonary cells to malignant transformation but also the...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-87-4-447
更新日期:1977-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Endocarditis is a relatively frequent infection in intravenous drug users. We compared features in the cases of 102 patients with those in intravenous drug users with other causes of fever to identify risk factors predictive of endocarditis. Logistic regression analysis showed cocaine use to be strongly associated wit...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-106-6-833
更新日期:1987-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:SOURCE CITATION:Cao B, Wang Y, Wen D, et al. A trial of lopinavir-ritonavir in adults hospitalized with severe Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1787-99. 32187464. ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 评论,杂志文章
doi:10.7326/ACPJ202006160-063
更新日期:2020-06-16 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine in female tennis and squash players the effect of biological age (that is, the starting age of playing relative to the age at menarche) at which tennis or squash playing was started on the difference in bone mineral content between the playing and non-playing arms. DESIGN:Cross-sectional study. ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-123-1-199507010-00003
更新日期:1995-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Left bundle-branch block (BBB) is considered an important predictor of poor outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction, but the consequences of right BBB are not well understood. OBJECTIVES:To 1) estimate the prevalence of left and right BBB in patients with myocardial infarction; 2) compare the c...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-129-9-199811010-00003
更新日期:1998-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Much of what is formally taught in medicine is about the knowledge, skills, and behaviors required of a physician, including how to express compassion and respect for patients at the bedside. What is learned, however, includes not only admirable qualities but also behaviors and qualities that are inconsistent with eth...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/M17-2058
更新日期:2018-04-03 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Pay-for-performance (P4P) is increasingly touted as a means to improve health care quality. PURPOSE:To evaluate the effect of P4P remuneration targeting individual health care providers. DATA SOURCES:MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, OpenSIGLE, Canadian Evaluation Society Unpublished Literature Bank, New ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-157-12-201212180-00009
更新日期:2012-12-18 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Hospice providers contend that enrollment reduces the cost of the Medicare programs, but estimates of effects are dated, methodologically limited, and focused on persons with cancer. OBJECTIVE:To estimate the effects of hospice care on Medicare program payments during the last year of life from 1996 to 1999...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-140-4-200402170-00009
更新日期:2004-02-17 00:00:00
abstract:PURPOSE:To review the available data on the treatment of chronic stable angina and formulate a rational approach to the use of pharmacologic therapy, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). DATA SOURCES:A MEDLINE search of English-language literature publ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-128-3-199802010-00008
更新日期:1998-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The risk for hypertension after kidney donation remains uncertain. PURPOSE:To see whether normotensive adults who donate a kidney develop higher blood pressure and risk for hypertension compared with nondonor adults acting as control participants. DATA SOURCES:MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index we...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-145-3-200608010-00006
更新日期:2006-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Smokers with medical illnesses are at particular risk for complications caused by tobacco. Clinical trial data on the effectiveness of triple-combination pharmacotherapy for tobacco dependence treatment in these high-risk smokers are not available. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate extended duration of a triple-medicat...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-150-7-200904070-00004
更新日期:2009-04-07 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Warfarin reduces the risk for ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) but increases the risk for hemorrhage. Dabigatran is a fixed-dose, oral direct thrombin inhibitor with similar or reduced rates of ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage in patients with AF compared with those of war...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-154-1-201101040-00289
更新日期:2011-01-04 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Dietary protein has long been thought to play a role in the progression of chronic renal disease, but clinical trials to date have not consistently shown that dietary protein restriction is beneficial. PURPOSE:To use meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of dietary protein restriction in previously published...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-124-7-199604010-00002
更新日期:1996-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::The indications for treating patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (normal serum thyroxine and free thyroxine levels, but elevated serum thyrotrophin levels) are poorly defined. In this study, 33 patients with subclinical hypothyroidism were randomly assigned in a double-blind manner to receive placebo or L-thyroxi...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-101-1-18
更新日期:1984-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Traditionally, acupuncture is embedded in naturalistic theories that are compatible with Confucianism and Taoism. Such ideas as yin-yang, qi, dampness, and wind represent East Asian conceptual frameworks that emphasize the reliability of ordinary, human sensory awareness. Many physicians who practice acupuncture rejec...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-136-5-200203050-00010
更新日期:2002-03-05 00:00:00
abstract::To describe more explicitly the components of competence required of the internist, The American Board of Internal Medicine has analyzed the medical encounter and defined the major variables involved: the abilities required of the internist, the tasks that must be performed to solve a medical problem, the medical illn...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-90-3-402
更新日期:1979-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:ClinicalTrials.gov requires reporting of result summaries for many drug and device trials. PURPOSE:To evaluate the consistency of reporting of trials that are registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov results database and published in the literature. DATA SOURCES:ClinicalTrials.gov results database and matched ...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7326/M13-0480
更新日期:2014-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Molecular analysis of normal and abnormal human globin genes and their gene products has recently provided information on the precise genetic events that result in hemoglobinopathies. In the case of structurally abnormal hemoglobins, the following mechanisms can be invoked: single nucleotide base substitutions leading...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-91-4-605
更新日期:1979-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) frequently develop exacerbations, leading to major clinical and health resource use ramifications. OBJECTIVE:To prospectively evaluate the effectiveness of a long-acting inhaled anticholinergic bronchodilator, tiotropium, in reducing COPD exacerbati...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-143-5-200509060-00007
更新日期:2005-09-06 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Health care workers are at occupational risk for a vast array of infections that cause substantial illness and occasional deaths. Despite this, few studies have examined the incidence, prevalence, or exposure-associated rates of infection or have considered infection-specific interventions recommended to mai...
journal_title:Annals of internal medicine
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7326/0003-4819-125-10-199611150-00007
更新日期:1996-11-15 00:00:00