Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a popular tool to compare multiple treatments in medical research. It is frequently implemented via Bayesian methods. The prior choice of between-study heterogeneity is critical in Bayesian NMAs. This study evaluates the impact of different priors for heterogeneity on NMA results. METHODS:We identified all NMAs with binary outcomes published in The BMJ, JAMA, and The Lancet during 2010-2018, and extracted information about their prior choices for heterogeneity. Our primary analyses focused on those with publicly available full data. We re-analyzed the NMAs using 3 commonly-used non-informative priors and empirical informative log-normal priors. We obtained the posterior median odds ratios and 95% credible intervals of all comparisons, assessed the correlation among different priors, and used Bland-Altman plots to evaluate their agreement. The kappa statistic was also used to evaluate the agreement among these priors regarding statistical significance. RESULTS:Among the selected Bayesian NMAs, 52.3% did not specify the prior choice for heterogeneity, and 84.1% did not provide rationales. We re-analyzed 19 NMAs with full data available, involving 894 studies, 173 treatments, and 395,429 patients. The correlation among posterior median (log) odds ratios using different priors were generally very strong for NMAs with over 20 studies. The informative priors produced substantially narrower credible intervals than non-informative priors, especially for NMAs with few studies. Bland-Altman plots and kappa statistics indicated strong overall agreement, but this was not always the case for a specific NMA. CONCLUSIONS:Priors should be routinely reported in Bayesian NMAs. Sensitivity analyses are recommended to examine the impact of priors, especially for NMAs with relatively small sample sizes. Informative priors may produce substantially narrower credible intervals for such NMAs.
journal_name
J Gen Intern Medjournal_title
Journal of general internal medicineauthors
Rosenberger KJ,Xing A,Murad MH,Chu H,Lin Ldoi
10.1007/s11606-020-06357-1subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2021-01-05 00:00:00eissn
0884-8734issn
1525-1497pii
10.1007/s11606-020-06357-1pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Antibiotics are often prescribed for hospitalized patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. The use of procalcitonin (PCT) in the management of pneumonia has safely reduced antibiotic durations, but limited data on the impact of PCT guidance on the management of COPD exacerbat...
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
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journal_title:Journal of general internal medicine
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
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journal_title:Journal of general internal medicine
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:2009-11-01 00:00:00
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