Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.

Abstract:

:We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

journal_name

Emerg Infect Dis

authors

Biggerstaff M,Cowling BJ,Cucunubá ZM,Dinh L,Ferguson NM,Gao H,Hill V,Imai N,Johansson MA,Kada S,Morgan O,Pastore Y Piontti A,Polonsky JA,Prasad PV,Quandelacy TM,Rambaut A,Tappero JW,Vandemaele KA,Vespignani A,Warmbr

doi

10.3201/eid2611.201074

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-11-01 00:00:00

pages

e1-e14

issue

11

eissn

1080-6040

issn

1080-6059

journal_volume

26

pub_type

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