Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Abstract:

:Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

journal_name

Mol Biol Evol

authors

Stadler T,Kouyos R,von Wyl V,Yerly S,Böni J,Bürgisser P,Klimkait T,Joos B,Rieder P,Xie D,Günthard HF,Drummond AJ,Bonhoeffer S,Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

doi

10.1093/molbev/msr217

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-01-01 00:00:00

pages

347-57

issue

1

eissn

0737-4038

issn

1537-1719

pii

msr217

journal_volume

29

pub_type

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