Abstract:
:The export of pollutant loads from coastal catchments is of primary interest to natural resource management. For example, Reef Plan, a joint initiative by the Australian Government and the Queensland Government, has indicated that a 20% reduction in sediment is required by 2020. There is an obvious need to consider our ability to detect any trend if we are to set realistic targets or to reliably identify changes to catchment loads. We investigate the number of years of monitoring aquatic pollutant loads necessary to detect trends. Instead of modelling the trend in the annual loads directly, given their strong relationship to flow, we consider trends through the reduction in concentration for a given flow. Our simulations show very low power (<40%) of detecting changes of 20% over time periods of several decades, indicating that the chances of detecting trends of reasonable magnitudes over these time frames are very small.
journal_name
Mar Pollut Bulljournal_title
Marine pollution bulletinauthors
Darnell R,Henderson B,Kroon FJ,Kuhnert Pdoi
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.04.002subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-01-01 00:00:00pages
203-9issue
4-9eissn
0025-326Xissn
1879-3363pii
S0025-326X(12)00154-3journal_volume
65pub_type
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