Statistical power of detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef.

Abstract:

:The export of pollutant loads from coastal catchments is of primary interest to natural resource management. For example, Reef Plan, a joint initiative by the Australian Government and the Queensland Government, has indicated that a 20% reduction in sediment is required by 2020. There is an obvious need to consider our ability to detect any trend if we are to set realistic targets or to reliably identify changes to catchment loads. We investigate the number of years of monitoring aquatic pollutant loads necessary to detect trends. Instead of modelling the trend in the annual loads directly, given their strong relationship to flow, we consider trends through the reduction in concentration for a given flow. Our simulations show very low power (<40%) of detecting changes of 20% over time periods of several decades, indicating that the chances of detecting trends of reasonable magnitudes over these time frames are very small.

journal_name

Mar Pollut Bull

authors

Darnell R,Henderson B,Kroon FJ,Kuhnert P

doi

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.04.002

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-01-01 00:00:00

pages

203-9

issue

4-9

eissn

0025-326X

issn

1879-3363

pii

S0025-326X(12)00154-3

journal_volume

65

pub_type

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