Abstract:
:Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from wrecks, enabling a structured approach to include the complex factors affecting the risk values. A unique feature of this model is its specific focus on uncertainty, facilitating probabilistic calculation of the total risk as the integral expected sum of many possible consequences. A case study is performed in Kattegat at the entrance region to the Baltic Sea to map the risk from a wreck near Sweden. The developed model can be used for oil spill risk assessment in the marine environment all over the world.
journal_name
Environ Intjournal_title
Environment internationalauthors
Amir-Heidari P,Arneborg L,Lindgren JF,Lindhe A,Rosén L,Raie M,Axell L,Hassellöv IMdoi
10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.037subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-05-01 00:00:00pages
309-320eissn
0160-4120issn
1873-6750pii
S0160-4120(18)32406-1journal_volume
126pub_type
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