Abstract:
:Land use change near dense forests is the single major cause of emergence of forest-based emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) among humans. In an attempt to predict where the next EID would originate from, we are hypothesizing that future EIDs would originate from a region having high population density, excessive poverty, and is located near dense vegetation. Using ArcGIS, we identified forest regions in ten countries across the globe that meet all the three conditions identified in the hypothesis. We further narrowed down the locations using Global Forest Watch data, which eliminates locations next to protected forests and fragmented forests. Our results indicate that there is high likelihood of next infectious disease originating from the southern and eastern forests around Freetown in Sierra Leone, the forest region around Douala in Cameroon, or the southern forest region in Nigeria. Concerted efforts need to be made to identify any new disease in the areas as soon as it emerges in the human population and contain the spread within the population.
journal_name
Environ Monit Assessjournal_title
Environmental monitoring and assessmentauthors
Shah V,Shah A,Joshi Vdoi
10.1007/s10661-018-6711-6subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-05-09 00:00:00pages
337issue
6eissn
0167-6369issn
1573-2959pii
10.1007/s10661-018-6711-6journal_volume
190pub_type
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