Abstract:
:One of the main advantages of Bayesian analyses of clinical trials is their ability to formally incorporate skepticism about large treatment effects through the use of informative priors. We conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of informative normal, Student- t, and beta distributions in estimating relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) for binary outcomes. Simulation scenarios varied the prior standard deviation (SD; level of skepticism of large treatment effects), outcome rate in the control group, true treatment effect, and sample size. We compared the priors with regards to bias, mean squared error (MSE), and coverage of 95% credible intervals. Simulation results show that the prior SD influenced the posterior to a greater degree than the particular distributional form of the prior. For RR, priors with a 95% interval of 0.50-2.0 performed well in terms of bias, MSE, and coverage under most scenarios. For OR, priors with a wider 95% interval of 0.23-4.35 had good performance. We recommend the use of informative priors that exclude implausibly large treatment effects in analyses of clinical trials, particularly for major outcomes such as mortality.
journal_name
Stat Methods Med Resjournal_title
Statistical methods in medical researchauthors
Pedroza C,Han W,Truong VTT,Green C,Tyson JEdoi
10.1177/0962280215620828subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-01-01 00:00:00pages
79-96issue
1eissn
0962-2802issn
1477-0334pii
0962280215620828journal_volume
27pub_type
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