Prospective analysis of infectious disease surveillance data using syndromic information.

Abstract:

:In this paper, we describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model for the prospective analysis of data for infectious diseases. The proposed model consists of two components. The first component describes the behavior of disease during nonepidemic periods and the second component represents the increase in disease counts due to the presence of an epidemic. A novelty of our model formulation is that the parameters describing the spread of epidemics are allowed to vary in both space and time. We also show how syndromic information can be incorporated into the model to provide a better description of the data and more accurate one-step-ahead forecasts. These real-time forecasts can be used to identify high-risk areas for outbreaks and, consequently, to develop efficient targeted surveillance. We apply the methodology to weekly emergency room discharges for acute bronchitis in South Carolina.

journal_name

Stat Methods Med Res

authors

Corberán-Vallet A,Lawson AB

doi

10.1177/0962280214527385

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-12-01 00:00:00

pages

572-90

issue

6

eissn

0962-2802

issn

1477-0334

pii

0962280214527385

journal_volume

23

pub_type

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