Abstract:
:In this paper we offer a mathematical definition for the probability of causation that formalizes the legal and ordinary-language meaning of the term. We show that, under this definition, even the average probability of causation among exposed cases is not identifiable from epidemiologic data. This is because the probability of causation depends both on the unknown mechanisms by which exposure affects disease risk and competing risks, and on the unknown degree of heterogeneity in the background disease risk of the exposed population. We derive the maximum and minimum values for the probability of causation consistent with the observable population quantities. We also derive the relationship of the "assigned share" (excess incidence rate as a proportion of total incidence rate) to the probability of causation.
journal_name
Biometricsjournal_title
Biometricsauthors
Robins J,Greenland Ssubject
Has Abstractpub_date
1989-12-01 00:00:00pages
1125-38issue
4eissn
0006-341Xissn
1541-0420journal_volume
45pub_type
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