Investment decisions in influenza pandemic contingency planning: cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral drugs.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The threat of an influenza pandemic has led to stockpiling of antiviral drugs in order to mitigate a plausible outbreak. If the stockpile would be used in relation to the recent pandemic alert, an investment decision about renewing the stock for a possible subsequent pandemic is essential. The decision should include cost-effectiveness considerations. METHODS:We constructed a cost-effectiveness analysis in the Dutch context, explicitly including risk of an outbreak. Outcomes from a dynamic transmission model, comparing an intervention with a non-intervention scenario, were input in our health economic calculations. RESULTS:Stockpiling was cost-effective from the health-care perspective if the actual risk is 37% for 30 years. If less than 60% of the population would take the antiviral drugs or the attack rate is about 50%, the investment would not be cost-effective from this perspective. CONCLUSION:Risk perception, realistic coverage among population and size of a pandemic are crucial parameters and highly decisive for the investment decision.

journal_name

Eur J Public Health

authors

Lugnér AK,Postma MJ

doi

10.1093/eurpub/ckp119

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-10-01 00:00:00

pages

516-20

issue

5

eissn

1101-1262

issn

1464-360X

pii

ckp119

journal_volume

19

pub_type

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