Geographic and temporal trends in influenzalike illness, Japan, 1992-1999.

Abstract:

:From 1992 to 1999, we analyzed >2.5 million cases of influenzalike illness (ILI). Nationwide influenza epidemics generally lasted 3-4 months in winter. Kriging analysis, which illustrates geographic movement, showed that the starting areas of peak ILI activity were mostly found in western Japan. Two spreading patterns, monotonous and multitonous, were observed. Monotonous patterns in two seasons featured peak ILI activity that covered all of Japan within 3 to 5 weeks in larger epidemics with new antigenic variants of A/H3N2. Multitonous patterns, observed in the other five seasons, featured peak ILI activity within 12 to 15 weeks in small epidemics without new variants. Applying the kriging method allowed better visualization and understanding of spatiotemporal trends in seasonal ILI activity. This method will likely be an important tool for future influenza surveillance in Japan.

journal_name

Emerg Infect Dis

authors

Sakai T,Suzuki H,Sasaki A,Saito R,Tanabe N,Taniguchi K

doi

10.3201/eid1010.040147

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2004-10-01 00:00:00

pages

1822-6

issue

10

eissn

1080-6040

issn

1080-6059

journal_volume

10

pub_type

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