A mathematical model of a heroin epidemic: implications for control policies.

Abstract:

:An exponential model based on the infectious disease model of Kermack and McKendrick has been simplified to illustrate how the use of heroin spreads in epidemic fashion. A numerical simulation is arranged to show how the dynamics of spread are influenced by the original number of users, rates of conversion, and time of removal from the drug scene of those secondarily affected. The spread is significantly increased by small increases of those originally affected, in which case reduction of spread requires a large increase in rate of removal. The model indicates a strategy for intervention which is discussed in relation to policies for control of drug abuse.

authors

Mackintosh DR,Stewart GT

doi

10.1136/jech.33.4.299

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1979-12-01 00:00:00

pages

299-304

issue

4

eissn

0143-005X

issn

1470-2738

journal_volume

33

pub_type

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