Abstract:
Background:There is no published study evaluating the performance of cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm on meningitis data with limited baseline period. This study aimed to evaluate the CUSUM performance in timely detection of 707 semi-synthetic outbreak days. Methods:Simulated outbreaks were generated using syndromic data on fever and neurological symptoms from Mar 2010 to Mar 2013 in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran. The performance of CUSUM algorithms, numbered from 1 to 11, in timely detection of outbreaks was measured using sensitivity, specificity, false alarm rate, likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results:The highest amount of sensitivity was related to algorithm11 (CUSUM(3-9 D11)) and it was 52% (95% CI: 49%, 56%). Minimum amount of false alarm rate was related to CUSUM(1-7 D5) algorithm equal to 8% (95% CI: 5, 10) and the best amount of positive likelihood ratio was related to CUSUM(1-7 D4) equal to 4.97. CUSUM(1-7 D1) has the best performance with AUC curve equal to 73% (95 CI%: 70%, 76%), as well. Conclusion:The used approach in this study can be the basis for applying CUSUM algorithm in conditions that there is no access to recorded baseline data about under surveillance diseases or health events.
journal_name
Iran J Public Healthjournal_title
Iranian journal of public healthauthors
Karami M,Ghalandari M,Poorolajal J,Faradmal Jsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-10-01 00:00:00pages
1366-1373issue
10eissn
2251-6085issn
2251-6093journal_volume
46pub_type
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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doi:
更新日期:2016-10-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:
更新日期:2014-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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doi:
更新日期:2017-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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doi:
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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更新日期:2019-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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更新日期:2020-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Iranian journal of public health
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