Does consideration of either psychological or material disadvantage improve coronary risk prediction? Prospective observational study of Scottish men.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE:To assess the value of psychosocial risk factors in discriminating between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease, using risk prediction equations. DESIGN:Prospective observational study. SETTING:Scotland. PARTICIPANTS:5191 employed men aged 35 to 64 years and free of coronary heart disease at study enrollment MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for risk prediction equations including different risk factors for coronary heart disease. RESULTS:During the first 10 years of follow up, 203 men died of coronary heart disease and a further 200 were admitted to hospital with this diagnosis. Area under the ROC curve for the standard Framingham coronary risk factors was 74.5%. Addition of "vital exhaustion" and psychological stress led to areas under the ROC curve of 74.5% and 74.6%, respectively. Addition of current social class and lifetime social class to the standard Framingham equation gave areas under the ROC curve of 74.6% and 74.9%, respectively. In no case was there strong evidence for improved discrimination of the model containing the novel risk factor over the standard model. CONCLUSIONS:Consideration of psychosocial risk factors, including those that are strong independent predictors of heart disease, does not substantially influence the ability of risk prediction tools to discriminate between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease.

authors

Macleod J,Metcalfe C,Smith GD,Hart C

doi

10.1136/jech.2006.055921

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2007-09-01 00:00:00

pages

833-7

issue

9

eissn

0143-005X

issn

1470-2738

pii

61/9/833

journal_volume

61

pub_type

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