Abstract:
BACKGROUND:The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. METHODS:Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. RESULTS:A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. CONCLUSIONS:Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
journal_name
J Epidemiol Community Healthjournal_title
Journal of epidemiology and community healthauthors
Hajat S,Vardoulakis S,Heaviside C,Eggen Bdoi
10.1136/jech-2013-202449subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2014-07-01 00:00:00pages
641-8issue
7eissn
0143-005Xissn
1470-2738pii
jech-2013-202449journal_volume
68pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVE:To analyse time trends in overweight and obesity from 1991 to 2000 in samples of German children and to test the hypothesis of a trend difference between the samples from East and West Germany during this time period. DESIGN:Repeated cross-sectional studies using data of 35,434 five to seven-year-old childre...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2007.062117
更新日期:2008-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:To investigate a community wide outbreak of hepatitis A (HA). DESIGN:Description of the outbreak, with a case-control study to assess transmission. SETTING:A Florida county, USA, 1988-9. SUBJECTS:A total of 311 cases of HA. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:A 13 month outbreak of HA is described. Most o...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.47.4.269
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Limited research has shown a possible association between exposure to physical or sexual abuse prior to age 18 and the risk of developing hypertension as an adult. The factors mediating this relationship are unknown. METHODS:Questionnaire data from 68 505 female participants in the Nurses' Health Study II w...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2009.095109
更新日期:2010-05-01 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Manitoba's The Need to Know project was presented with a unique opportunity to develop a collaborative approach to evaluation, and to explore the effectiveness of a variety of evaluation methods for assessment of university-community collaborative health research partnerships. OBJECTIVES:The evaluation wa...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2005.040881
更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVES:To analyse the factors that determined whether or not people were successful in quitting tobacco during the 1980s in Sweden. DESIGN:A logistic regression model was used for the analyses and included: education, marital status, socioeconomic group, social network, physical activities, cigarette consump...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.50.6.625
更新日期:1996-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Earlier investigations have shown mortality effects of community socio-economic resources. However, the sex differences have not been clear, and the estimates may well have been biased because of inadequate control for community factors affecting both the socio-economic resources and mortality. The objective...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2008.081034
更新日期:2010-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:The study aimed to examine the concurrence in the variation of monthly numbers of deaths in summer and winter from the four main underlying causes - respiratory, circulatory, neoplastic, and all others - in four countries. In particular, the hypothesis that most non-respiratory concurrent deaths are mis...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.49.4.373
更新日期:1995-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The aim of this study was to explore the impact of mid-life income and old-age pensions on the risk of mortality in later life. Furthermore, the study explored whether income inequalities in old-age mortality can be explained by differences in early childhood development, social class during childhood, educa...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2010.131177
更新日期:2012-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To empirically test the impact of dietary intake at several time points in childhood on children's school attainment and to investigate whether any differences in school attainment between children who ate packed lunches or school meals was due to who these children were, their pre-school dietary patterns, o...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2007.068213
更新日期:2008-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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更新日期:2005-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Progressing public policies that improve health equity requires understanding and addressing the creation, use and distribution of power. This glossary provides an overview of some of the most relevant conceptualisations of the dynamics of power in policy with implications for health equity. The aim is to provide an a...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2019-213692
更新日期:2020-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Whether or not, and how, health inequalities change throughout older age is currently under debate. The goal of this study was to assess the net impact of education, occupational class, income and wealth on frailty trajectories among older adults in Continental Europe. METHODS:We modelled frailty index traj...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2016-207712
更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Financial strain is associated with earlier disability and mortality, but causal links are underexplored, partly because it is unethical to randomise people to financial stress. This study leverages naturally occurring random variation in days since monthly Social Security payment arrival among older adults ...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2020-213807
更新日期:2020-11-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:To examine the difficulties of developing and maintaining outcome evaluation designs in long term, community based health promotion programmes. DESIGN:Semistructured interviews of health promotion managers. SETTING:Wales and two reference health regions in England. PARTICIPANTS:Nine health promotion ...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.47.2.127
更新日期:1993-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:The purpose of the study was to examine adult body height as an indicator of general health. DESIGN:The study was a survey of a randomly selected sample of the adult Swedish population obtained by the Swedish National Central Bureau of Statistics. PARTICIPANTS:The sample studied was identified in 1980...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.43.4.380
更新日期:1989-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:There is a growing interest in understanding the connection between mental illness (MI) and the onset of new physical illnesses among previously physically healthy individuals. Yet the role of gender is often forgotten in research focused on comorbidity of health problems. The objective of this study was to ...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2013-202838
更新日期:2014-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:School systems are increasingly typified by diversity of provision, parental choice and publication of performance data. Schools shape their students' lifestyles and health, but the effects of 'marketisation' are under-researched. The authors use qualitative data to develop a logic model regarding such effec...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2011.137539
更新日期:2012-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:To examine the effect of deprivation, crowding, maternal smoking, and breast feeding on morbidity from wheeze and diarrhoea in the first six months after birth. DESIGN:A geographically located population survey using maternal responses on self completion questionnaires. SETTING:The three health distri...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.52.7.451
更新日期:1998-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Average paternal age in the UK is increasing. The public health implications of this trend have not been widely anticipated or debated. This commentary aims to contribute to such a debate. Accumulated chromosomal aberrations and mutations occurring during the maturation of male germ cells are thought to be responsible...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.2005.045179
更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2014-205148
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2012-201742
更新日期:2013-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech-2013-202725
更新日期:2014-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::The public health movement has been concerned with the relation between housing and health for well over a century. Nevertheless the Black Report still identified housing as one of the major causes of ill-health and suggested, on one indicator at least, that council housing is the least healthy form of tenure. An expl...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.39.1.15
更新日期:1985-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::In a randomised controlled trial intensive individual anti-smoking advice given in parallel with hospital antenatal care did not influence the outcome of pregnancy. The belief that retardation of fetal growth caused by maternal smoking occurs in late pregnancy is not well based, and the advice may not have been given ...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 传,古典文章,历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.50.3.232
更新日期:1996-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Alcohol policies around the world seek to delay the initiation of drinking. This is partly based on the influential idea that earlier initiation is likely to cause adult alcohol problems. This study synthesises robust evidence for this proposition. METHODS:Systematic review of prospective cohort studies in ...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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更新日期:2014-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.53.4.235
更新日期:1999-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:We examined the associations between socioeconomic trajectories from birth to adulthood and gestational age and birth size in the next generation, using linked data from two population-based birth cohorts carried out in a Brazilian city. By comparing socioeconomic trajectories of mothers and fathers, we atte...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to examine whether the high mortality in lower salaried men in Norway was related to an inflow into this group of unskilled workers with high mortality. DESIGN:Individual information on occupation was derived from the 1970 and the 1980 censuses and linked to mortality data for the peri...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:1993-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY OBJECTIVE:Examine the association between county occupational structure, services availability, prevalence of risk factors, and coronary mortality rates by sex, for 1980-96, in New York state. DESIGN:New York's 62 counties were classified into three occupational structure categories; counties with the lowest per...
journal_title:Journal of epidemiology and community health
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/jech.56.11.868
更新日期:2002-11-01 00:00:00