Uncertainty analysis: an example of its application to estimating a survey proportion.

Abstract:

:Uncertainty analysis is a method, established in engineering and policy analysis but relatively new to epidemiology, for the quantitative assessment of biases in the results of epidemiological studies. Each uncertainty analysis is situation specific, but usually involves four main steps: (1) specify the target parameter of interest and an equation for its estimator; (2) specify the equation for random and bias effects on the estimator; (3) specify prior probability distributions for the bias parameters; and (4) use Monte-Carlo or analytic techniques to propagate the uncertainty about the bias parameters through the equation, to obtain an approximate posterior probability distribution for the parameter of interest. A basic example is presented illustrating uncertainty analyses for four proportions estimated from a survey of the epidemiological literature.

authors

Jurek AM,Maldonado G,Greenland S,Church TR

doi

10.1136/jech.2006.053660

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2007-07-01 00:00:00

pages

650-4

issue

7

eissn

0143-005X

issn

1470-2738

pii

61/7/650

journal_volume

61

pub_type

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