Decision analysis of prophylactic treatment for patients with high-risk esophageal varices.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:Clinical decision analyses were conducted to quantify the uncertainty and to identify important factors in selection of prophylactic therapy for patients with esophageal varices. METHODS:A Markov model compared variceal ligation, beta-blockers, and "watchful waiting" strategies in terms of bleeding-free life years. Transition probabilities were obtained from meta-analyses of published data. A hypothetical 50-year-old white man with high-risk esophageal varices and cirrhosis served as the prototypical baseline case. Traditional n-way sensitivity analyses were applied to clarify the influence of each factor, and Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to investigate clinical uncertainty. RESULTS:Probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that 77.0% of hypothetical cases had more bleeding-free life years after variceal ligation, whereas 23% had more when treated with beta-blockers. On the basis of one-way sensitivity analyses, only 2 factors (variceal bleeding rates after ligation and treatment with beta-blockers) influenced the strategy choice. CONCLUSIONS:Variceal ligation is an effective prophylactic therapy in many cases, but nearly one quarter of patients with high-risk esophageal varices and cirrhosis may benefit more from prophylactic treatment with beta-blockers. Additional clinical studies identifying key variceal bleeding risk factors may lead to more effective clinical decision making for these patients.

journal_name

Gastrointest Endosc

authors

Aoki N,Kajiyama T,Beck JR,Cone RW,Soma K,Fukui T

doi

10.1067/mge.2000.110729

keywords:

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2000-12-01 00:00:00

pages

707-14

issue

6

eissn

0016-5107

issn

1097-6779

pii

S0016-5107(00)70181-7

journal_volume

52

pub_type

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