Accounting for population structure reveals ambiguity in the Zaire Ebolavirus reservoir dynamics.

Abstract:

:Ebolaviruses pose a substantial threat to wildlife populations and to public health in Africa. Evolutionary analyses of virus genome sequences can contribute significantly to elucidate the origin of new outbreaks, which can help guide surveillance efforts. The reconstructed between-outbreak evolutionary history of Zaire ebolavirus so far has been highly consistent. By removing the confounding impact of population growth bursts during local outbreaks on the free mixing assumption that underlies coalescent-based demographic reconstructions, we find-contrary to what previous results indicated-that the circulation dynamics of Ebola virus in its animal reservoir are highly uncertain. Our findings also accentuate the need for a more fine-grained picture of the Ebola virus diversity in its reservoir to reliably infer the reservoir origin of outbreak lineages. In addition, the recent appearance of slower-evolving variants is in line with latency as a survival mechanism and with bats as the natural reservoir host.

journal_name

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

authors

Vrancken B,Wawina-Bokalanga T,Vanmechelen B,Martí-Carreras J,Carroll MW,Nsio J,Kapetshi J,Makiala-Mandanda S,Muyembe-Tamfum JJ,Baele G,Vermeire K,Vergote V,Ahuka-Mundeke S,Maes P

doi

10.1371/journal.pntd.0008117

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-03-04 00:00:00

pages

e0008117

issue

3

eissn

1935-2727

issn

1935-2735

pii

PNTD-D-19-00601

journal_volume

14

pub_type

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